First match up on Saturday is Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Eagles and the most interesting market for me here is the total points with West Coast in the middle of a huge trend to the unders when away from Perth. They are 3/16 over/under since 2015 and 2/10 since the start of last year. BUT…the bookies are on to this now and the line is set at 171.5 and Etihad day games in 2017 have averaged 187 points and Bulldogs games 180 points at the same venue. I’m in two minds so won’t be having a bet but definitely lean to the unders.
I like a long shot in the Carlton vs Adelaide game and in hindsight should have put it up as Roughie of the Week after the Dees failed to play their part last night after the Swans won the first half.
Carlton have been pretty good starters in 2017 winning 5 of their 12 opening quarters while the Crows, quite remarkably for such a strong team, have won just four of 13 first quarters.
We’ll take a punt on:
Carlton to win 1st quarter at $2.80 with
Carlton/Adelaide/Adelaide/Adelaide in the quarter by quarter market at $8.50 with
The Cats are 3+ goals underdogs to GWS at Spotless which could look big after the game but their record as similar underdogs is uninspiring so we’ll watch this one with no financial investment.
My last bet of the round is going on Richmond to beat Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval at $3.66 with and +25.5 at $1.95 with the same firm in what has the looks of a low scoring affair that could well be a lot tighter than is forecast.