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AFL: Round 16 Trends and Tips
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by @thetrendbettor

 

 

 

 

 

Sydney v Geelong – SCG

Thursday Night, Line -11.5, Total 154.5

Sydney are 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 Over in 2018

Geelong are 8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS, 4-10 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Sydney are 6-2 SU & ATS against Geelong since 2014

    • 2-0 SU & ATS in Sydney

    • Under is 5-3

  • Sydney are 10-5 SU, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 Thursday/Friday Night matches at home

  • Geelong are 3-5-1 SU, 4-5 ATS in their last 9 matches interstate

    • 1-3-1 SU, 2-3 ATS as underdogs

 

Recommended Bet: 1u Sydney 1-39 @ $2.15 (Crownbet)

 

 

 

 

 

Richmond v Adelaide – MCG

Friday Night, Line -26.5, Total 166.5

Richmond are 11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS, 8-6 Over in 2018

Adelaide are 7-7 SU, 6-8 ATS, 5-9 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Richmond are 16-0 SU, 14-2 ATS in their last 16 matches at the MCG

  • Adelaide are 3-2-1 SU, 2-4 ATS at the MCG under Don Pyke

  • Under is 9-1 in the last 10 night matches at the MCG in winter

  • Richmond are 1-4 SU & ATS against Adelaide since 2015

    • 1-0 SU & ATS at the MCG (Grand Final)

  • Under is 11-3 in the last 14 Friday Night Richmond matches

  • Under is 12-3 in Adelaide Friday Night matches since 2015

Recommended Bet: 1u Under 166.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Brisbane v Carlton – Gabba

Saturday Afternoon, Line -19.5, Total 173.5

Brisbane are 2-12 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 Over in 2018

Carlton are 1-13 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-8 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Brisbane are 4-1 SU & ATS against Carlton since 2014

    • 4-0 SU & ATS at the Gabba

  • Carlton are 2-13 SU, 6-9 ATS in interstate matches under Brendan Bolton

  • Brisbane’s % in 2nd halves is 103.3% in 2018

  • Carlton’s % in 2nd halves is 68.8% in 2018

Recommended Bet: 2u Brisbane -10.5 2nd half line @ $1.89 (Bet365)

 

 

 

Port Adelaide v St Kilda – Adelaide Oval

Saturday Twilight, Line -39.5, Total 160.5

Port Adelaide are 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 4-10 Over in 2018

St Kilda are 3-10-1 SU, 5-9 ATS, 6-8 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Port Adelaide are 13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS as true home favourites since 2017

  • Port Adelaide are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS against St Kilda since 2012

    • 4-0 SU , 2-2 ATS at the Adelaide Oval

  • St Kilda are 5-17 SU, 8-14 ATS in interstate matches under Alan Richardson

  • Under is 13-3 in the last 16 Port Adelaide matches at Adelaide Oval against interstate sides

  • Under is 14-5 in the last 19 St Kilda interstate matches

Recommended Bet: 1u Under 160.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

Western Bulldog v Hawthorn – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Night, Line +15.5, Total 173.5

Western Bulldogs are 5-9 SU, 5-9 ATS, 5-9 Over in 2018

Hawthorn are 8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS, 5-9 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Western Bulldogs are 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS against Hawthorn since 2015

    • 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS at Etihad Stadium

    • Average total points scored = 187 points

  • Both teams have score 75+ in each of the 3 Bulldogs matches since the bye

  • Hawthorn are 7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2015

  • The Bulldogs have won 4 of their last 5 first quarters

  • Hawthorn’s worst quarter in 2018 is the first, 6-8 SU, 76%

Recommended Bets:

  • 1u Western Bulldogs +3.5 1st Quarter @ $1.95 (Bet365)

  • 1u Both Teams to Score 74+ @ $1.95 (Bet365)

 

 

 

Melbourne v Fremantle – TIO Stadium

Saturday Night, Line -41.5, Total 163.5

Melbourne are 8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS, 8-6 Over in 2018

Fremantle are 6-8 SU, 8-6 ATS, 4-10 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Melbourne are 1-3 SU & ATS against Fremantle since 2015

  • Melbourne are 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS in last 5 matches at TIO Stadium

  • Under is 5-3 in the last 8 matches at TIO Stadium

  • Fremantle are 1-5 SU & ATS away from Perth in 2018

    • Under is 4-2

Recommended Bet: 2u Under 168.5 Total  at $1.88 with William Hill

 

 

 

 

 

North Melbourne v Gold Coast – Etihad Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line -48.5, Total 178.5

North Melbourne are 8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS, 4-10 Over in 2018

Gold Coast are 3-11 SU, 6-8 ATS, 4-10 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • North Melbourne are 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS against the Gold Coast since 2015

  • North Melbourne are 2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS against Gold Coast at Etihad Stadium

  • North Melbourne are 4-2 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

  • Gold Coast are 1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS in interstate matches in 2018

  • Ben Cunnington has collected over 25 disposals in 10 of his last 13 matches at Etihad Stadium

Recommended Bet: 3u Ben Cunnington 25+ disposals @ $1.75 (Bet365)

 

 

Essendon v Collingwood – MCG

Sunday Afternoon, Line +8.5, Total 163.5

Essendon are 7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS, 4-10 Over in 2018

Collingwood are 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS, 7-7 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Essendon are 3-3 SU & ATS against Collingwood since 2015

  • Collingwood are 8-0 SU, 5-4 ATS as favourites in 2018

  • Essendon are 1-13 SU, 47% in 3rd quarters in 2018

  • Collingwood are 11-3 SU, 135% in 3rd quarters in 2018

  • Over is 7-1 in the last 8 day matches played at the MCG

Recommended Bet: 1u Collingwood win 3rd quarter @ $1.71 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

West Coast v GWS Giants – Optus Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line -12.5, Total 164.5

West Coast are 11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS, 6-8 Over in 2018

GWS Giants are 8-5-1 SU, 5-9 ATS, 7-7 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • West Coast are 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS against GWS Giants since 2017

  • Away sides are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams

  • 3 of the last 4 West Coast matches have been decided by 15 points or less

  • GWS are 6-21 SU, 14-13 ATS as road dogs under Leon Cameron

  • GWS are 4-0 SU & ATS in their last 4 matches

Recommended Bet: 2u GWS Giants +12.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

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