Adelaide have been well backed from an opening line of -25.5 into around -32.5 and they could still be a little bit of value. They averaged 96 points at home last year and have improved on that so far in 2015 putting an average of 98 points on the board.
In their four day matches this year they have scored 140, 80, 119 and 116.
The Suns have been poor for most of the year but the inclusion of Harley Bennell should help their cause as he will be keen to impress.
They have averaged 73 points in 2015, 70 in day matches and 66 on the road. The Suns have not won away from Metricon Stadium since round 9 of 2014, losing their last 14.
I can see them beating the Suns by 10 goals with the finals within their grasp.
Richmond have beaten Freo already this year, by 27 points, at Patersons Stadium in round 10 and have also seen off Sydney, Port and Collingwood so they will be confident of getting a result here, which is vital if they want to finish in the top 4.
Nat Fyfe’s participation is still in doubt and with the current odds so close to a coin toss i’d want to know if he’s in or out before having a bet. I lean towards the Dockers if he’s in.
The total points line is set at 152.5 with both sides trending to the unders, however I think this could be a bit more open than many obviously think and with 167 points scored last time the two met (line was 156.5) I’m happy to punt the overs here.