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AFL Round 18 - Trends Analysis and Tips
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by @thetrendbettor

 

 

OFFICIAL PLAYS:

3u ADEL/GEEL Either team by under 24.5 @ $1.91 (Wait for teams to come out)

0.5 Cats 1-39 / under 178.5 @ $6

1u North Melbourne +30.5 @ $1.93

2u Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.3

2u WB/GC Under 166.5 @ $1.91

2u Sydney -27.5 @ $1.93

4u Hawks win (24 point special) @ $1.73

1u Freo/Hawks u164.5 @ $1.91

3u Rich/GWS Either team by under 19.5 @ $2

2u West Coast (24 point special) @ $1.97

2 BL/Carl Either team by under 24.5 @ $1.80

 

 

 

 

Adelaide v Geelong – Adelaide Oval

Crows are 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS, 7-9 Over

Cats are 11-4-1 SU, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 Over

Crows are 0-5 SU & ATS v the Cats since 2014

      0-1 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval

Home teams are 7-1 SU & ATS when these two teams play each other, since 2012

      Cats beat Crows at Adelaide Oval in 2016

Crows are 15-4 SU, 13-6 ATS at Adelaide Oval against interstate sides under Don Pyke

Crows are 24-5 SU, 19-10 ATS as favourites under Don Pyke

Under is 29-12 in night matches at the Adelaide Oval

      7-3 in 2017

Cats are 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS interstate in 2017

Cats are 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 matches as underdogs

 

Prediction: Friday night footy kicks off round 18 with a top of the table clash, and I think I’ll live up to the hype. I’m waiting for final teams to come out first to see whether or not Dangerfield/Sloane will be playing before I make an official play. If the former is playing, I expect the Cats to be able to get over the top of the Crows. The Cats know how to defend the Crows as a team, and if Dangerfield plays, I don’t think the Crows minimalise the Cats’ score low enough. I’m not expecting a shootout tonight, the lower the scores, the more it’ll play into the Cats’ hands. IF Dangerfield is playing, Cats by 7.

 

Recommended Bet: Either team by under 24.5 @ $1.91

 

 

 

Essendon v North Melbourne – Etihad Stadium

Bombers are 8-8 SU, 10-6 ATS, 8-8 Over

North are 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS, 9-7 Over

Bombers are 3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS v North since 2010

      0-4 SU, 3-1 ATS in the last 4

Teams that win by 60+ points as underdogs are 5-8 SU, 3-10 ATS the week after, since 2011 (H&A season) (Essendon)

Victorian sides that are 20+ point favourites against another Victorian sides are 7-4 SU, 0-11 ATS in 2017 (Essendon)

Bombers are 1-3 SU & ATS as favourites in 2017

      Under is 4-0

Bombers are 3-2 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2017

North are 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2017

Prediction: When I look at the North Melbourne 22 they’re putting out on the park, you realise how hard it is to place a bet on them in any capacity as they are debuting their 11th(!) youngster for the year. The Bombers showed their class last week, but I’m wary on betting on them as they’re in a similar position that the Saints were in last week and are probably vulnerable to a down performance. It’s also fascinating that when a Victorian side is 20+ points favourites over another Victorian side this year, they are 0-11 ATS. It is for that reason that I expect North to cover. Dons by 17.

Recommended Bet: North Melbourne +30.5 @ $1.93

 

 

 

Melbourne v Port Adelaide – MCG

Dees are 9-7 SU, 6-10 ATS, 9-7 Over

Port are 10-6 SU & ATS, 6-10 Over

Dees are 1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS vs Port since 2012

      0-1 SU & ATS at the MCG in 2013

Dees are 5-4 SU & ATS as underdogs in 2017

Dees are 3-5 SU, 0-8 ATS at the MCG in 2017

Victorian teams are 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS the week after playing at TIO Stadium

      Dees are 1-6 SU & ATS

Port are 8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS as favourites in 2017

      Under is 8-3

Port are 5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS away from Adelaide Oval in 2017

Port are 5-4 SU, 7-2 at the MCG under Ken Hinkley

Prediction: The Dees welcome back a number of key players into their 22 – Viney, Watts, Salem and Tyson. Melbourne showed how much injuries have played a role in their season last week in their lacklustre performance against the Crows up north, and will be looking to bounce back and surge into September with some form. Standing in front of them though is a Port Adelaide side that is sitting comfortably in 4th, and just seem to get the job done when required. Even though the Dees have some big ins, the fact that they haven’t covered a line in eight attempts at their own home ground worries me a bit. Port by 16

Recommended Bet: Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.30

 

 

 

Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast – Cazaly’s Stadium

Bulldogs are 8-8 SU, 5-11 ATS, 6-10 Over

Suns are 6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS, 9-7 Over

Bulldogs are 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS v Suns

      3-0 SU & ATS at Cazaly’s Stadium

Suns are 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS at Cazaly’s Stadium

Under is 6-0 at Cazaly Stadium, average points of 154

Suns are 2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS away from Metricon Stadium in 2017

Prediction: The Dogs weren’t overly impressive last week against the Blues, and I’m expecting a similar score line against the Suns. I think the Dogs will win, but I think that they will not blow it out. The Dogs only average 72 points in their last 11 matches, and I expect the low scores to continue in North Queensland. Bulldogs by 22.

Recommended Bet: Under 166.5 @ 1.90

 

 

 

Sydney v St Kilda – SCG

Swans are 9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS, 6-10 Over

Saints are 9-7 SU, 6-10 ATS, 5-11 Over

Swans are 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs the Saints

      3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS at the SCG

Swans average 128.8 team points in their last 5 matches vs the Saints

Swans are 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS at the SCG in 2017

      Under is 6-2

Under is 14-5 in the last 9 matches at the SCG

Saints are 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS interstate under Alan Richardson

Saints are 4-24 SU, 10-18 interstate as underdogs since 2012

Prediction:

The Swans have an unblemished record against the Saints for a long time now, and I don’t expect it to be dented this weekend as the hottest team in the leagues comes up against last week’s most disappointing. The Swans are professional and experienced enough to not have a slip up like the Saints did last week, and I expect them to do it with ease on Saturday Night. Swans by 43

Recommended Bet: Sydney -27.5 @ $1.93

 

 

 

 

 

Fremantle v Hawthorn – Domain Stadium

Freo are 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 Over

Hawks are 6-9-1 SU, 7-9 ATS, 4-12 Over

Hawks are 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS v Fremantle since 2011

      2-1 SU & ATS at Domain Stadium

Freo are 4-3 SU & ATS v interstates sides at Domain Stadium in 2017

Under is 9-1 in the last 10 night matches (> 5pm local time) at Domain Stadium

Under is 7-0 in the last 7 interstate Hawthorn matches (excluding Tasmania home matches)

Hawks are 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS in their last 8 away interstate.

Prediction: I backed the Hawks last week as I felt that they had turned around their season, but just fell short on what was pretty much the last kick of the game. Even though they are most likely not going to be playing finals, their last three weeks against the Pies, Giants and the Cats is evident that there is still some class about this outfit. They come up against a Fremantle side that could have easily won all of their last four matches, but have come up short in three of them (beating North Melbourne in the process). It was inaccuracy that hurt them last week, and I reckon Fremantle will find another way to lose this weekend. My main play will be the Hawks, because I feel 164.5 is a low number to bet with any great stake. Hawks by 12

Recommended Bet: Hawthorn win (24 point special) @ $1.73 & Under 164.5 @ $1.91

 

 

 

 

Richmond v GWS Giants – MCG

 

Tigers are 10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS, 4-12 Over

Giants are 10-4-2 SU, 6-10 ATS, 8-8 Over

GWS are 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS against the Tigers under Leon Cameron

  • Under is 4-0

Tigers are 6-2 SU & ATS at the MCG in 2017

  • Under is 7-1

Tigers are 4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS as underdogs in 2017

  • Under is 7-1

Giants are 3-3-1 SU, 3-4 ATS away from NSW/ACT in 2017

Giants are 1-9 SU, 5-5 ATS at the MCG

  • Under is 5-1 since 2014

10 of the last 11 GWS matches have been decided by under 24 points

Prediction

Even though these two teams are sitting in 3rd and 6th on the ladder, both the Giants and the Tigers know how vital this match may be for their respective seasons. The Giants haven’t won a match in the last three weeks, and the Tigers were unconvincing against the Lions last week after getting smashed by the Saints the week before. I expect this to be a close game as both teams will be hungry. Giants by 4 points.

Recommended Bet: Either Team by under 19.5 @ $2.00

 

 


 

Collingwood v West Coast – Etihad Stadium

 

Pies are 6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS, 9-7 Over

Eagles are 9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS, 7-9 Over

Pies are 5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS v the Eagles under Nathan Buckley

  • Under is 7-2

  • 0-1 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium

Pies are 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2014

Pies are 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS in Victoria the week after playing interstate since 2014

Eagles are 3-4 SU & ATS away from Domain in 2017

  • 2-1 SU & ATS at Etihad

Eagles are 1-4 SU & ATS as “road favourites” in 2017

Prediction

The Eagles are another side that won last week unconvincingly, but they won’t care how they collect the four points, just as long as they do. This week they’re on the road, and despite the stigma that these Eagles can’t play away from home, they’re playing at a stadium where they’ve won 3 times in their last 4 attempts. If the Eagles are serious about making the finals, they simply just have to win this match against a Collingwood side that won’t be playing finals. Eagles by 12

Recommended Bet: West Coast (24 point special) @ $1.97

 

 


 

Brisbane v Carlton – Gabba

 

Lions are 3-13 SU, 9-7 ATS, 10-6 Over

Blues are 5-11 SU, 10-6 ATS, 6-10 Over

Lions are 4-1 SU & ATS against the Blues since 2014

  • 3-0 SU & ATS at the Gabba

Lions are 1-6 SU & ATS at the Gabba in 2017

  • Worst home record in the league (SU & ATS)

Blues are 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS interstate under Brendan Bolton

  • Under is 7-2

Prediction

With both teams sitting in the bottom 3 on the ladder not many people would get excited about this match, but hopefully we see two young sides displaying their bright futures and fight for a rare win in 2017. These two sides play polar-opposite brands of footy as the Blues like to clamp their opponents while the Lions can move the footy with slingshot speed. It’s hard to bet on either of these teams with confidence in this matchup, but I feel like the Blues will be more disciplined and win in a close one. Blues by 9.

Recommended Bet: Either team by under 24.5 @ $1.80

 

 

 

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