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AFL: Round 18 Trends and Tips
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by @thetrendbettor

 

 

 

 

 

St Kilda v Richmond – Etihad Stadium

Friday Night, Line +34.5, Total 173.5

St Kilda are 4-11-1 SU, 7-9 ATS, 7-9 Over in 2018

Richmond are 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 Over in 2018

 

 

Key Trends:

  • Richmond are 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS against St Kilda since 2016

  • Richmond are 3-4 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2016

  • Under is 12-3 in the last 15 Friday Night Richmond matches

  • Richmond are 19-0 SU, 15-4 ATS in their last 19 matches in Melbourne

    • 3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS at Etihad Stadium

  • Under is 8-5 in Friday Night matches at Etihad Stadium since 2017

 

Comments: Under has been a good bet in both Richmond, and matches at Etihad Stadium on Friday nights as of late, so I’ll be looking that way again.

 

 

Recommended Bet: 1u Under 173.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Bet365/Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Collingwood v North Melbourne – MCG

Saturday Afternoon, Line -13.5, Total 170.5

Collingwood are 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 Over in 2018

North Melbourne are 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 5-11 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Collingwood are 3-1 SU & ATS against North Melbourne since 2014

    • 2-0 SU & ATS at the MCG

  • Collingwood are 9-1 SU, 6-5 ATS as favourites in 2018

  • Collingwood are 6-5 SU & ATS at the MCG in 2018

  • North Melbourne are 6-4 SU & ATS at the MCG since 2014

    • Over is 8-2

  • 4 of the last 6 meetings between these two side have totalled 190+ points

  • Over is 8-2 in the last 10 day matches at the MCG

 

Comments: This matchup has produced high scoring matches in the last few years, and with only a small chance of rain expected, I expect this to be somewhat of a shootout at the MCG. I love the over in this match!

Recommended Bet: 2u Over 169.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

Sydney v Gold Coast – SCG

Saturday Afternoon, Line -60.5, Total 162.5

Sydney are 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 Over in 2018

Gold Coast are 3-13 SU, 7-9 ATS, 4-12 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Sydney are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS against Gold Coast since 2014

    • 2-0 SU & ATS at the SCG

  • Sydney are 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 matches at the SCG as 40+ point favourites

    • Over is 9-1

  • Gold Coast are 0-3 SU & ATS at the SCG

 

Comments:

The SCG hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for the Suns – losing all of their previous games by over 60 points. To add to the pain, the Swans seem to do it easily and tend to put up a lot of points when playing at home as heavy favourites, and with % going to play a big part as to who finishes where on the ladder, the Swans will want a big boost out of this one.

Recommended Bets:

  • 1.5u Sydney -60.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

  • 1.5u Over 160.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Essendon v Fremantle – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Twilight, Line -38.5, Total 162.5

Essendon are 8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS, 4-12 Over in 2018

Fremantle are 7-9 SU, 9-7 ATS, 4-12 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Fremantle are 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS against the Bombers since 2014

    • Home team is 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS

  • Fremantle are 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS in their last 6 matches at Etihad Stadium

  • Essendon are 6-4 SU & ATS at the Etihad Stadium against interstate teams since 2016

  • Fremantle are 1-6 SU & ATS in interstate matches in 2018

Comments: Fremantle have a great record against Essendon in the last few years, but most of those game have been in Perth, and Fremantle have a shocking record away from home in 2018, so I’m going to gladly steer clear of this game.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Essendon 1-39 @ $2.40 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

Brisbane v Adelaide – Gabba

Saturday Night, Line +9.5, Total 180.5

Brisbane are 4-12 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 Over in 2018

Adelaide are 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS, 6-10 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Adelaide are 3-0 SU & ATS against Brisbane since 2015

    • Average winning margin of 101.7

  • Brisbane are 1-9 SU & ATS in their last 10 night matches at the Gabba

  • Adelaide are 12-3-1 SU, 10-6 ATS as favourites in matches played interstate under Don Pyke

  • Brisbane’s 1st half % in 2018 is 71.9%

  • Adelaide’s 1st half % in 2018 is 101.5%

Comments: Despite Brisbane being the only team to win in each of the last 3 rounds, I can’t help but think Adelaide’s class across the board will prevail. With that being said, I don’t have enough guts to go against Brisbane across the whole game as their % in 2nd halves of matches is an incredible 113.5! So I’m going for the first half play in this one, it seems the wiser play.

Recommended Bet: 2u Adelaide -4.5 1H @ $1.89 (Bet365)

 

 

 

Geelong v Melbourne – GMHBA Stadium

Saturday Night, Line -11.5, Total 163.5

Geelong are 9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS, 5-11 Over in 2018

Melbourne are 10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS, 9-7 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Geelong are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 matches against Melbourne

  • Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams

  • Geelong are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in their last 6 matches against Melbourne in Geelong

  • Geelong are 19-0 SU, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 matches in Geelong against teams that aren’t named “Sydney”

  • Under is 8-1 in the last 9 matches in Geelong

  • Melbourne are 7-1 SU & ATS away from the MCG in 2018

Comments: Geelong have had a pretty ordinary month, to be fair, despite beating Sydney at the SCG a couple of weeks ago, but they will welcome the idea of playing on their home turf once again. Even though Melbourne have undoubtedly played their best footy away from the MCG this season, I just don’t see them winning in this one. I was originally tossing up between Geelong ATS and the Under as I think they’re both good plays, but Melbourne are capable of leaking goals at times, so either way, take Geelong to bounce back here.

Recommended Bet: 1u Geelong -11.5 @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

 

 

Carlton v Hawthorn – Etihad Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line +36.5, Total 168.5

Carlton are 1-15 SU, 7-9 ATS, 8-8 Over in 2018

Hawthorn are 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 6-10 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Carlton are 1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS in their last 3 matches against Hawthorn

    • Under is 3-0

  • Hawthorn are 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2016

  • Carlton are 0-4 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

  • Hawthorn are 9-1 SU, 2-8 ATS as 30+ favourites since 2016

Comments: The trends strongly suggest to back Carlton to some capacity, so I am leaning towards Hawthorn 1-39, but I don’t understand how you can trust a team that have lost to Fremantle, Brisbane and St Kilda in the last few weeks, all by over 10 goals. Stay away.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.37 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

West Coast v Western Bulldogs – Optus Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line -38.5, Total 142.5 – Heavy rain

West Coast are 13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 Over in 2018

Western Bulldogs are 5-11 SU, 5-11 ATS, 7-9 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • West Coast are 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS in their last 3 matches against the Western Bulldogs

  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams

  • Under is 8-4 in all matches with the over/under being lower than 145 since 2011

  • Western Bulldogs are 1-9 SU, 2-8 ATS in their 10 matches played interstate

    • Under is 8-2

Comments: You won’t see a total as low as this too often, but with heavy rain expected throughout the morning and afternoon, I’m willing to take it on. I reckon the Bulldogs will struggle to score 45 points themselves, and it would be a big task for the Eagles to score over 100 in these conditions.

Recommended Bet: 2u Under 142.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

Port Adelaide v GWS Giants – Adelaide Oval

Sunday Twilight, Line -6.5, Total 157.5

Port Adelaide are 11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS, 4-12 Over in 2018

GWS Giants are 9-6-1 SU, 7-9 ATS, 7-8 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • GWS are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 matches against Port Adelaide

  • Under is 24-7 in the 31 Port Adelaide matches played at Adelaide Oval in winter

  • GWS are 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS at Adelaide Oval

    • 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS against Port Adelaide

  • In matches involving Port Adelaide where the line is 15 or less (either way) at Adelaide Oval against interstate teams, 9 of the last 10 games have been decided by 24 points or less.

    • Port Adelaide are 4-6 SU & ATS in such games

Comments: Port Adelaide will be looking to bounce back after their disastrous loss on the road against Fremantle last week, but they’re up against a Giants team that will have their tails up after beating Richmond. 9 of the last 10 predictably close Port Adelaide matches at Adelaide Oval have been just that – close – so I’ll back another one here.

Recommended Bet: 3u Either Team by Under 24.5 Points @ $1.72 (Sportsbet)

 

 

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