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AFL: Round 19 Trends and Tips
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by @thetrendbettor

 

 

 

 

 

Round 19 Preview:

 

 

Essendon v Sydney – Etihad Stadium

Friday Night, Line -3.5, Total 168.5

Essendon are 9-8 SU, 8-9 ATS, 5-12 Over in 2018

Sydney are 11-6 SU, 8-9 ATS, 8-9 Over in 2018

 

 

Key Trends:

  • Essendon are 0-8 SU, 3-5 ATS against Sydney since 2012

    • 0-2 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium

  • Essendon are 9-5-1 SU, 1-14 ATS as favourites the week after a win since 2014

  • Sydney are 15-2 SU, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 Etihad Stadium

  • Under John Longmire, Sydney are 63-32-1 SU (65.63%), 51-45 ATS (53.13%) at home, 65-28-1 SU (69.15%), 54-50 ATS (51.92%) in away matches. Sydney are the ONLY team to have won more away matches than home matches in this span

  • The lowest scoring match involving Essendon and an interstate team at Etihad Stadium in the last 8 matches is 169.5

  • Over is 12-3 in the last 15 Sydney matches at Etihad Stadium

  • Sydney has failed to score 80+ points only once in their last 20 matches at Etihad Stadium

 

Comments: After remarkably and uncharacteristically losing to the Gold Coast Suns last week, the Swans have to bounce back, and there is no better hunting ground for them to do so than Etihad Stadium – against a team that they haven’t lost to in 6 years. I’m not at all surprised that the Swans are underdogs against a rejuvenated and desperate Essendon outfit, but I’ll be looking to make the most out of this opportunity.

 

Recommended Bet: 3 units Sydney at $2.15 with Bet365 ($2.22 Betfair)

 

 

 

Richmond v Collingwood – MCG

Saturday Afternoon, Line -20.5, Total 168.5

Richmond are 13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS, 8-9 Over in 2018

Collingwood are 12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS, 9-8 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Richmond are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 matches against Collingwood

  • The lowest total points scored in the last 8 matches between these two teams is 169

  • Richmond are 17-0 SU, 15-2 ATS in their last 17 matches at the MCG

  • Collingwood are 7-5 SU & ATS at the MCG in 2018

  • Collingwood are 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS as underdogs in 2018

  • Over is 9-2 in the last 11 day matches at the MCG

 

Comments: When I was saw these two were playing this weekend, I was hoping that the line would be around -10.5 in favour of Richmond, but the bookies are a little bit smarter than that. The line is -20.5 – a number that seems a tad high for a match where 1st is up against 3rd with no great home advantage but the bookies know that Richmond have covered the last 15 of the last 17 lines at the G. 20 seems about right for me as I don’t feel safe giving up 20 points, but I also don’t feel safe going against the Tigers, so I’m looking elsewhere, and I believe I’m on to a winner here.

Recommended Bet: 2u Over 168.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

Geelong v Brisbane Lions – GMBHA Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line -33.5, Total 180.5

Geelong are 10-7 SU, 8-9 ATS, 6-11 Over in 2018

Brisbane are 4-13 SU, 10-7 ATS, 9-8 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Geelong are 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 matches against Brisbane

    • 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS at Kardinia Park

  • Geelong are 21-0 SU, 15-6 ATS in their last 21 matches at Kardinia Park against teams except Sydney

  • Geelong are 8-5 SU, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 matches as 30+ point favourites

    • 6-0 SU, 2-4 ATS at Simonds Stadium

  • Brisbane are 3-15 SU, 13-5 ATS in interstate matches under Chris Fagan

 

Comments: Geelong have an unbelievably good record at Kardinia Park, but Brisbane have a great record away from home ATS, so I’ll be looking at Geelong 1-39 here.

Recommended Bet: 1.5u Geelong 1-39 @ $2.40 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

GWS Giants v St Kilda – Spotless Stadium

Saturday Twilight, Line -39.5, Total 159.5

GWS are 10-6-1 SU, 8-9 ATS, 7-10 Over in 2018

St Kilda 4-12-1 SU, 7-10 ATS, 7-10 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • GWS are 3-1-1 SU, 2-3 ATS against St Kilda since 2015

    • 1-0 SU & ATS at Spotless Stadium

  • St Kilda are 5-18 SU, 9-14 ATS in interstate matches under Alan Richardson

    • 3-18 SU, 9-12 ATS as underdogs

  • GWS are 10-2-1 SU, 3-10 ATS as favourites at Spotless Stadium since 2017

  • Callan Ward has racked up 30+ disposals in each of his last 5 matches at Spotless Stadium

Comments: I’m reading mixed trends here as GWS aren’t great when it comes to winning ATS at home, and the Saints aren’t much chop on the road. Ward has racked up 30+ disposals in each of his last 5 matches at Spotless, so anything over $2 is value.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 units Callan Ward 30+ disposals @ $2.45 (William Hill)

 

 

Promo Bet: Toby Greene 3+ goals & GWS win @ $3 (Ladbrokes)

 

 

 

 

 

Gold Coast v Carlton – Metricon Stadium

Saturday Night, Line -20.5, Total 157.5

Gold Coast are 4-13 SU, 8-9 ATS, 5-12 Over in 2018

Carlton are 1-16 SU, 7-10 ATS, 9-8 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Gold Coast are 2-1 SU & ATS against Carlton since 2017

    • Away teams are 3-0 SU & ATS

  • Gold Coast are 1-3 SU & ATS as home favourites since 2017

  • Over is 15-5 in matches where Gold Coast are home favourites

  • Carlton are 2-14 SU, 6-10 ATS playing interstate under Brendon Bolton

  • Over is 7-1 in the last 8 Carlton matches interstate

 

Comments:
There is very little chance that I’m touching this game, but if you’re desperate for a bet, the “over” seems to be the bet.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Over 157.5 Total Points Scored @ $157.5 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

Adelaide v Melbourne – Adelaide Oval

Saturday Night, Line -5.5, Total 170.5

Adelaide are 9-8 SU, 7-10 ATS, 7-10 Over in 2018

Melbourne are 10-7 SU, 11-6 ATS, 10-7 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Adelaide are 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS against Melbourne since 2016

  • Melbourne are 3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS at Adelaide Oval since 2014

    • Under is 6-0

    • 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS against Adelaide

  • Adelaide are 15-5 SU, 14-6 ATS in night matches as favourites at Adelaide Oval

  • Adelaide are 9-2 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval when the line is under 15 points, under Don Pyke

  • Under is 10-14 ATS in Adelaide matches played against interstate sides at night under Don Pyke

  • Melbourne are 7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS away from the MCG in 2018

Comments: Despite the fact that Melbourne have played fairly well at Adelaide Oval in the past, I think Adelaide have a real mental edge against Melbourne here. Melbourne would be devastated after last week’s heartbreaking loss, and I don’t think they’re mature enough to get over it so quickly; and Adelaide know that it is now or never if they are to play finals, this is simply a must win.

Recommended Bets: 1 unit Adelaide -4.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

North Melbourne v West Coast – Blundstone Arena

Sunday Afternoon, Line -6.5, Total 168.5

North Melbourne are 9-8 SU, 9-8 ATS, 6-11 Over in 2018

West Coast are 14-3 SU, 10-7 ATS, 8-9 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • West Coast are 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS against North Melbourne under Adam Simpson

  • North Melbourne are 11-2 SU & ATS at Blundstone Arena since 2014

  • North Melbourne are 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS against West Coast at Blundstone Arena

    • Both games have been decided by 10 points or less

  • West Coast are 5-2 SU & ATS in interstate matches in 2018

    • 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS as underdogs

Comments: North Melbourne have an elite record at Blundstone Arena and they’ll be helped with the fact that both Josh Kennedy and Luke Shuey will be missing this game due to injury, but West Coast proved a fortnight ago that they can win on the road by beating Collingwood with ease. I can’t see either team winning this game by a big margin.

Recommended Bet: 2u Either Team by Under 24.5 points @ $1.72 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide – Ballarat

Sunday Afternoon, Line 20.5, Total 147.5

Western Bulldogs are 5-12 SU, 5-12 ATS, 7-10 Over in 2018

Port Adelaide are 11-6 SU, 7-10 ATS, 4-13 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Western Bulldogs are 2-2 SU & ATS in their last 4 matches against Port Adelaide

    • 0-1 SU & ATS in Ballarat

    • Over is 4-0

  • Port Adelaide are 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS in interstate matches in 2018

    • 3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS as favourites

  • Western Bulldogs’ 2nd half % is 57.24% in 2018

  • Port Adelaide’s 2nd half % is 127.94% in 2018

Comments: There aren’t too many trends to pick from in this game simply due to the fact that this is only the second ever AFL game played in Ballarat. I do like the Power to get the win in this one, and should probably do it fairly easily, but the Dogs have played their best footy in the first halves this year, so I’ll back the Power to steam roll them in the 2nd.

Recommended Bet: 3u Port Adelaide -9.5 2H @ $1.85 (Bet365)

 

 

 

Fremantle v Hawthorn – Optus Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line 15.5, Total 154.5

Fremantle are 7-10 SU, 10-7 ATS, 5-12 Over in 2018

Hawthorn are 10-7 SU, 10-7 ATS, 7-10 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Hawthorn are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS against Fremantle since 2015

    • 2-0 SU & ATS in Perth

  • Fremantle are 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS at Optus Stadium in 2018

  • Hawthorn are 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS in away interstate matches in 2018

  • Hawthorn are 3-3 SU & ATS in Perth since 2014

Comments: If Hawthorn are to make the finals, this is simply a game that they have to win, but they come up against a Fremantle side that have played relatively well at home so this will be no easy task. The Hawks should win, but this is a real danger game, and I expect this to be close.

Recommended Bet: 0.5 units Either Team Under 15.5 Points @ $2.75 (Ladbrokes)

 

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