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AFL: Round 2 Wrap & Round 3 Early Bets
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We lost 2.25 units in round 2 but can count ourselves a tad unlucky as our 2 unit bet on the Swans at +23.5 (went off at +19.5) went down with the last kick of the match and for a long time it looked like the Swans would win the game and get us up on our straight up bet too. They never looked like not covering until they did exactly that!

 

 

 

 

Looking at the stats from the round 2 matches doesn’t indicate any teams that performed much better than their results suggested – i may have just contradicted what i wrote in the opening paragraph but never mind – but Brisbane fans might want to take some positives from their performance against the Bombers, as can Blues and Saints supporters. 

 

 

 

 

I have two early bets, both taking the unders in the total points markets.

 

 

 

 

First we have Richmond vs West Coast at the MCG on Saturday afternoon where the Bet365 line is set at 193.5.

  • My adjusted number for MCG day games is 172

  • Richmond average 176 in MCG day games since 2014 with the ave line 177

  • West Coast have played only four times in the day at the MCG since 2014 for totals of 168, 157, 153 and 152

  • West Coast interstate matches since 2014 have gone 6/20 over/under and 6/15 in day or twilight games

Back under 193.5 at $1.91 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

 

 

 

 

The next early bet is for the unders in the Geelong vs Melbourne game where 365’s line is 199.5.

  • My adjusted number for Etihad twilight games is 180

  • The average total in 2016 twilight games at Etihad was 190, 2015 it was 173, 2014 it was 182.

  • Melbourne at Etihad average 177 (small sample)

  • Geelong at Etihad average 177

Back under 199.5 at $1.91 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

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