We had another winning week in round 19 but could have gone better had Carlton taken advantage of kicking with the breeze in the opening quarter against the Hawks when they kicked 0-4 with plenty missing the lot and coming up short too.
Quite a bit of value this week so let’s get into it…
Collingwood vs Richmond
Richmond have lost nine of the last 10 against the Pies and come off an 88 point drubbing by GWS and a 70 point loss to the Hawks the week before.
The Tiges are 7/11 S/U and a disgraceful 4/14 ATS in 2016 including 2/9 ATS at the MCG. They had a good record as underdog in 2015 but not so this year as they are 1/9 and 2/7 ATS. In total they are -142 in inside 50’s compared to their opponents.
Collingwood have won eight and lost 10 in 2016 so not a dissimilar record to that of the Tigers. They have covered in eight of their 18 games.
Their total points records don’t give us much of a clue.
On recent form Collingwood should win but it was only a few weeks ago they were getting thrashed by Melbourne and Port Adelaide at the MCG so i’m leaving this match alone.. for now at least. If Richmond start ok then it could be a good match to trade in-play.
EDIT: Richmond have drifted to $3.58 and +22.5. I’ve had .33 units at $3.58 and a unit +22.5 at $1.95 with
Sydney vs Port Adelaide
Sydney are always of interest at the SCG where they are 7/2 S/U and 6/3 ATS this term while they also trend to the unders in 2016 at 2/7.
Port are 5/3, 5/3 and 3/5 to the under away from Adelaide Oval.
The Swans have won 13 of their 18 games with ten of the wins by 25 or more points. Six of their seven wins at the SCG have also been by 25 points plus.
It’s always tempting to back the Hawks at the minus when they are playing at the MCG but their ATS record of 4/6 as 20+ points favs suggests they are not the knocking bet many would assume. Melbourne are 11/7 ATS in 2016 and 4/1 as 20+ dogs at the MCG.
A good way to get with the Hawks is in the 39.5 tribet market. They are 10 from 10 straight up at the G in 2016 but with only one of those wins by more than 40 points.
I’ve been umming and arring about getting on the overs and i wouldn’t put anyone off doing so. I’m staying out for now, however.
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne
The Doggies are 7/4 S/U at Etihad and North are one game better with both sides 5/6 ATS at their shared home ground. The Dogs do not have a good record as underdog at Etihad losing the three games in 2016 and failing to cover in all of them. All totals went under.
The Dogs are 1/10 to the under at Etihad and North are 3/8 with 10 of the Kangas’ last 13 games also going under.
Both teams will be without their best big forward with Redpath and Waite injured. This cannot help the cause for any overs backers out there.
I’m not betting in this game, especially with Adelaide resting a few players including Sam Jacobs who has been key to their success in the ruck this year.
Carlton vs St Kilda
Carlton have battled well in defeats to West Coast, Sydney and Hawthorn and 7 point losses to the latter two teams on the road is form that should see them go close against the Saints at the MCG. This looks game to trade in play rather than one to get involved in pre game.