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AFL: Round 20 Trends Analysis and Tips
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by @thetrendbettor

 

 

 

 

3u GEEL/SYD Either Team By Under 24.5 Points @ $1.72 (Sportsbet)

2u GWS/MELB Either Team By Under 24.5 Points @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)

2u Western Bulldogs Total Team Points O108.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365)

1u Collingwood 1-39 Win @ $2.30 (Sportsbet)

1u Freo/Suns – Total Points Under 169.5 @ $1.90 (CrownBet)

2u Rich/Haw Either team by Under 19.5 @ $2 (Sportsbet)

3u Adel/PA Either Team by Under 24.5 points @ $1.80 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Geelong v Sydney – Simonds Stadium

 

Cats are 12-5-1 SU, 9-9 ATS, 9-9 Over

Swans are 10-8 SU, 10-8 ATS, 6-12 Over

Cats are 5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS against the Swans under Chris Scott

  • 3-2 SU & ATS at Simonds Stadium

    • Last 3 have gone “Under”

      • All 3 have been night/twilight

Cats are 14-1 SU, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 matches at Simonds Stadium

Cats are 15-1 SU, 12-4 ATS in night matches at Simonds Stadium

The median margin for Friday night matches is 17 points

Under is 15-0 in the last 15 Thursday/Friday night matches

Cats are 5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 matches as underdogs

Swans are 11-4 SU, 10-5 ATS in their last 15 matches away from the SCG

Swans are 36-9 SU, 26-19 ATS as “road favourites” under John Longmire

Prediction:

It’s always hard to go against the Cats at Simonds Stadium, but the Swans have done it before and they have a good chance of doing it again against a Danger-less Cats outfit. It will be interesting to see how the Cats manage without the rubbed out Brownlow Medallist. No matter who wins, I don’t see either teams being blown away. The common theme for Thursday/Friday night matches is to go the under, but Under is 2-2 in the last 4 T/F Night matches at Simonds Stadium. Swans by 10.

Recommended Bet:

Either Team By Under 24.5 Points @ $1.72 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 


 

 

GWS Giants v Melbourne – Manuka Oval

 

Giants are 11-5-2 SU, 6-12* ATS, 9-9 Over

Dees are 10-8 SU, 7-11 ATS, 9-9 Over

Giants are 3-2 SU & ATS v the Dees under Leon Cameron

  • 1-0 SU & ATS at Manuka Oval

12 of the last 13 GWS matches have been decided by under 24 points

Giants are 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS at Manuka Oval since 2015

  • Under is 6-2

Dees are 6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS in interstate matches since 2016

Prediction:

The Dees were very disappointing last week as they let a valuable 4 points slip against the lowly-ranked North Melbourne outfit. This shows that Melbourne have not fully matured as this has been a common occurrence over recent years. With that being said, the Dees have played some inspiring footy against top sides this season, notably beating the Crows in Adelaide, West Coast in Perth, and toppling Port after getting a 7 goal lead early. Don’t sleep on the Dees this weekend, after all, it’s not like the Giants are lighting the world on fire after their 2 goal win against the Dockers last week. I expect the close GWS matches to continue in Canberra. Dees by 6.

Recommended Bet: Either Team By Under 24.5 Points @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Essendon v Carlton – MCG

 

Bombers are 9-9 SU, 10-8 ATS, 10-8 Over

Blues are 5-13 SU, 10-8 ATS, 8-10 Over

Bombers are 2-2-1 SU, 1-4 ATS against the Blues in their last 5 meetings

Bombers are 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS as favourites in 2017

Blues are 11-12-1 SU, 20-4 ATS in their last 24 day matches at the MCG

  • 3-5 SU, 6-2 ATS in 2017

The Bombers will be keen to bounce back after letting last week’s game slip against the Dogs, and they have a great opportunity to stay within touching distance of the 8 coming up against the Blues, who have lost their last 6. Similarly to last season, the wheels have started to fall off at the seemingly-tired Carlton, but they have played very well at the G over the last few years so I don’t want to go against that. This could be anything between a 10 goal win for the Bombers, or even another Bombers slip up. It is for that reason I am staying away from this game. Bombers by 32.

Recommended Bet: Essendon 1-39 @ $2.20 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

Brisbane v Western Bulldogs – Gabba

 

Lions are 4-14 SU, 10-8 ATS, 11-7 Over

Bulldogs are 10-8 SU, 7-11 ATS, 7-11 Over

Bulldogs are 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS against the Lions under Luke Beveridge

Lions are 2-6 SU & ATS at the Gabba in 2017

  • Over is 5-3

  • Lions concede 122 points on average per game

  • Average result is a 37 point loss for the Lions

Bulldogs are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS at the Gabba since 2010

Only two of the last 22 matches at the Gabba have had less than 190 total points scored

6 of the 8 travelling sides have scored over 110 points at the Gabba in 2017

Prediction:
The Dogs are starting to click (even by their own admission by some of their players), and are looking for their 4th straight win to lift themselves into the 8. Teams have come to the Gabba and scored goals with ease this season, and I suspect the Dogs will do the same as they played some exhilarating footy last weekend against the Dons. Dogs by 45

Recommended Bet: Western Bulldogs Total Team Points o108.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365)

 

 

 


 

North Melbourne v Collingwood – Etihad Stadium

 

North are 5-13 SU, 8-10 ATS, 10-8 Over

Pies are 7-10-1 SU, 10-8 ATS, 10-8 Over

North are 3-3 SU & ATS against the Pies since 2012

  • 2-1 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium

North are 2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2017

Pies are 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2014

14 out of the 18 Collingwood matches have been decided by under 24.5 points

Prediction:

North pulled off a great win against the Dees, but I reckon it’ll be hard to back up such a pride-lifting win, especially without Jarrad Waite. The Pies are playing a brand of footy that has matched it with the top sides, which was on full display in their heartbreaking draw (if there is such a thing) against the Crows last week. It’s all too little too late in terms of making the 8, but they still seem very galvanised to do whatever it takes to save their coach. Pies by 17.

Recommended Bet: Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.30 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

Fremantle v Gold Coast – Domain Stadium

 

Freo are 7-11 SU, 9-9 ATS, 9-9 Over

Suns are 6-12 SU, 8-10 ATS, 9-9 Over

Freo are 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS against the Suns

  • 2-1 SU & ATS Domain Stadium

Freo are 4-5 SU & ATS at Domain Stadium against interstate sides in 2017

Suns are 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS away from Metricon Stadium in 2017

Suns are 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS at Domain Stadium

“Under” is 10-1 in the last 11 night matches at Domain Stadium

Prediction:

Despite the admirable effort last week against the Giants, the Dockers have lost 8 of their last 9, but have a rare opportunity to go into a game as favourites against the just as bad (if not worse) Suns. I think Freo will get the win here in a low scoring affair. “Under” in night matches at Domain is almost an automatic bet when given the opportunity. Dockers by 19

Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 169.5 @ $1.90 (CrownBet)

 

 

 


 

 

 

St Kilda v West Coast – Etihad Stadium

 

Saints are 9-9 SU, 7-11 ATS, 5-13 Over

Eagles are 10-8 SU, 8-10 ATS, 7-11 Over

Saints are 0-8 SU, 4-4 ATS against the Eagles since 2012

  • 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS at Etihad Stadium

Saints are 7-5 SU, 4-8 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2017

  • 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS against interstate sides

The median total points scored in a match involving a non-Victorian side at Etihad Stadium in 2017 is 189.5.

Eagles are 3-5 SU & ATS away from Domain Stadium in 2017

  • 2-2 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium

Over is 7-4 in St Kilda matches at Etihad Stadium in 2017

Prediction:

Both of these teams are fighting for their seasons’ survival. A blow to the Saints will almost officially mean lights out, whereas a loss to the Eagles would just be typical as to how their season has panned out. Which Eagles will we see this weekend? The Eagles who defeated the Dogs at Etihad a month ago? Or the Eagles who let vital 4 points slip against the Pies under the roof? Who knows? I sure as hell don’t, as the Eagles have burned me a couple of times so I’m steering clear of this game. Eagles by 12.

Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 171.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)

 

 

 


 

 

Richmond v Hawthorn – MCG

 

Tigers are 12-6 SU, 13-5 ATS, 4-14 Over

Hawks are 8-9-1 SU, 9-9 ATS, 4-14 Over

Tigers are 1-3 SU & ATS in their last 4 matches against the Hawks

Tigers are 7-2 SU & ATS at the MCG in 2017

  • Under is 8-1

  • 7 of the 9 matches have been decided by under 20 points

 

Hawks are 4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS at the MCG in 2017

  • Under is 7-3

6 of the last 7 Hawthorn matches have been decided by under 24 points

Prediction:

The Tigers and the Hawks are arguably the two most in-form teams in the competition. Richmond have won 5 of their last 6, and the Hawks have covered each of their last 6 lines. You can mount a case for either of these teams, and that’s exactly what I’ve done and I’m sitting on the fence here. Tigers by 7.

Recommended Bet: Either team by under 19.5 @ $2 (sportsbet)

 

 

 


 

Adelaide v Port Adelaide – Adelaide Oval

 

Crows are 13-4-1 SU, 12-6 ATS, 8-10 Over

Power are 12-6 SU, 11-7 ATS, 6-12 Over

Crows are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS in the last 4 Showdowns

7 of the last 9 Showdowns have been decided by under 24.5 points

Over is 8-1 in the last 9 day/twilight Showdowns.

  • Average 208 points

Prediction:

The Showdown is always a special occasion, but it’s even more special this time around with both teams being in the top 5 this late in the season, adding just another layer of excitement. It takes a brave man to go against the Crows in this one, especially when you consider the fact the poor record Port have had against the top 8 sides, but the Power will be seeing this match as a huge opportunity to make a statement just before finals. I still believe the Crows win, but there would be no better way to quash the “they can’t beat top 8 sides” stigma connected to the Power than beating your crosstown, top of the ladder rivals, so I would be very surprised if they just rolled over and accepted defeat, keeping this game close. Crows by 9.

Recommended Bet: Either Team By Under 24.5 points @ $1.80 (sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

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