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AFL: Round 20
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by @thetrendbettor

Richmond v Geelong – MCG

 

Friday Night, Line -15.5, Total 155.5

Richmond are 14-4 SU, 11-7 ATS, 9-9 Over in 2018

Geelong are 11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS, 6-11 Over in 2018

 

 

Key Trends:

  • Richmond are 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS against Geelong since 2014

    • Under is 6-1

    • 2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS at the MCG

  • Richmond are 18-0 SU, 16-2 ATS in their last 18 matches at the MCG

    • Concede 59.7 points per game

  • Geelong are 14-11 SU, 8-17 ATS in their last 25 matches at the MCG

  • Under is 22-9 in Geelong matches at the MCG since 2014

  • Under is 13-3 in the last 15 Friday Night Richmond matches

  • Under is 4-2 in the last 6 Geelong matches played on Friday Night away from Simonds Stadium

  • 4 of the last 5 matches between these two teams have been decided by 19 points or less

 

 

Comments: I was tossing up between 3 different bets here – either Richmond line, “under” total points, or Richmond 1-39 – as you could mount a case for all of the three. I don’t see this game being a shootout, but the 155.5 is just a tad too low for me to take on, and as I don’t see this game being too high scoring, it’s probably more likely that Richmond win by under 15 than by over 39. Richmond 1-39 seems to be more favourable than the line.

Recommended Bet: 1 unit Richmond 1-39 @ $2.10 (Crownbet)

 

 

 

 

Hawthorn v Essendon – MCG

 

Saturday Afternoon, Line +2.5, Total 170.5

Hawthorn are 11-7 SU, 11-7 ATS, 8-10 Over in 2018

Essendon are 10-8 SU, 9-9 ATS, 6-12 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

 

  • Hawthorn are 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS against Essendon since 2015

  • Over is 6-3 in the last 9 matches between these two teams

    • 3-2 at the MCG

  • Essendon are 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS at the MCG under John Worsfold

  • Under is 6-1 in the last 7 Essendon matches at the MCG

  • Hawthorn are 7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games at the MCG

  • Under is 12-6 in Hawthorn matches at the MCG since 2017

 

Comments: Prior to looking at the trends, I liked the Over in this game due to knowing that this has been to be the play in day matches at the MCG of late, but Essendon have struggled to kick a large score at the MCG, and Hawthorn matches have also been relatively low scoring at the ground. Hawthorn have the clear home ground advantage at the MCG but I’m reluctant to go against Essendon again, as they have continuously proven me wrong in the last month.

 

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.63 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

Brisbane v North Melbourne – Gabba

 

Saturday Afternoon, Line -4.5, Total 188.5

Brisbane are 4-14 SU, 10-8 ATS, 10-8 Over in 2018

North Melbourne are 10-8 SU, 10-8 ATS, 6-12 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • North Melbourne are 5-0 SU & ATS against Brisbane since 2015

    • Average winning margin = 58.6

  • North Melbourne are 3-1 SU & ATS in their last 4 away interstate matches

  • Brisbane are 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS in their last 10 matches at the Gabba

  • North Melbourne are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 matches at the Gabba

  • Since Round 15, top 12 teams are 18-4 SU, 10-12 ATS vs bottom 6 teams

 

 

Comments:

This must be just about the first time in history that a 4 team win is favourite over a 10 team win this late in the season, but that just exemplifies just how good of a 4-win team Brisbane is. On the other hand, I am very surprised that North Melbourne are underdogs in this one considering that they were favourites against the Eagles last week. Of course there is a difference in home ground advantage, but I can’t justify it being this much of a difference, especially as North have their season to play for.

Recommended Bet: 3 units North Melbourne @ $2.15 (TAB)

 

 

 

 

Adelaide v Port Adelaide – Adelaide Oval

 

Saturday Twilight, Line +3.5, Total 151.5

Adelaide are 9-9 SU, 7-11 ATS, 7-11 Over in 2018

Port Adelaide are 12-6 SU, 8-10 ATS, 4-14 ATS in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Adelaide are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in their last 6 matches against Port Adelaide

  • Over is 11-3 in the last 14 Showdowns

    • Lowest scoring total points scored is 174

  • Adelaide have scored 90 points or more in each of their last 8 Showdowns

 

Comments: There is no real point in looking at trends from outside of the rivalry when these two play, but the Showdown trends are pretty damning. I like Adelaide to win this game, but I think I like the “Over” a lot more, despite the windy conditions that are predicted for this one.

Recommended Bet: 2 units Over 151.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs – Etihad Stadium

 

Saturday Night, Line -8.5, Total 169.5

St Kilda are 4-13-1 SU, 8-10 ATS, 7-11 Over in 2018

Western Bulldogs are 5-13 SU, 5-13 ATS, 7-11 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Western Bulldogs are 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS against St Kilda since 2015

    • Under is 5-0

  • Under is 4-11 in the last 15 matches at Etihad Stadium

  • Western Bulldogs are 4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

  • St Kilda are 2-6-1 SU, 3-6 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

  • Western Bulldogs 2nd half % is 55.33% in 2018

  • St Kilda’s 2nd half % is 83.27% in 2018

 

Comments: The last 5 matches between these two teams have been relatively low scoring, but matches at Etihad Stadium haven’t been of late, so I’m not backing the Unders. The Saints have been a lot more competitive than what they were in the first half of the season, especially in the 2nd halves of matches, whereas that’s exactly where the Dogs’ downfall has been.

Recommended Bet: 1 unit St Kilda -5.5 2H @ $1.89 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Sydney v Collingwood – SCG

 

Saturday Night, Line -5.5, Total 160.5

Sydney are 11-7 SU, 8-10 ATS, 9-9 Over in 2018

Collingwood are 12-6 SU, 10-8 ATS, 10-8 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Sydney are 4-6 SU & ATS against Collingwood since 2010

    • 3-6 SU & ATS in NSW

    • 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS at the SCG

  • Collingwood are 8-3 SU & ATS in their last 11 interstate matches

    • 5-3 SU, 7-1 ATS as underdogs

  • Sydney are 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS at the SCG in 2018

  • 7 of the 9 matches at the SCG have been decided by 24 points or less

 

Comments: My initial instinct is telling me to go against Sydney – something that I rarely do – due to the fact that they have had an absolutely horrendous month (winning only one of their last 5) but it would be absolutely typical Sydney of old to make sure that they don’t lose this game. I don’t like either team to run away with this one by over 4 goals.

Recommended Bet: 2u Either Team by Under 24.5 Points @ $1.75 (Ladbrokes)

 

 

 

 

Carlton v GWS Giants – Etihad Stadium

 

Sunday Afternoon, Line 42.5, Total 173.5

Carlton are 2-16 SU, 8-10 ATS, 9-9 Over in 2018

GWS Giants are 11-6-1 SU, 8-10 ATS, 7-11 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • GWS are 4-1 SU & ATS against Carlton since 2014

  • Carlton are 2-7 SU, 6-3 ATS in their last 9 matches against interstate sides in Victoria

  • GWS are 3-1 SU & ATS in their last 4 interstate matches

  • GWS are 4-5-1 SU, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 matches played interstate as favourites

 

Comments: GWS have an outstanding record against Carlton in the last few years despite losing their last meeting, and have hit their straps at the right time of the season, but Carlton have done relatively well against interstate sides at home, enough to deter me from playing this one.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: GWS 1-39 @ $2.60 (Sportsbet/Neds)

 

 

 

 

Melbourne v Gold Coast – MCG

 

Sunday Afternoon, Line -67.5, Total 175.5

Melbourne are 11-7 SU, 12-6 ATS, 10-8 Over in 2018

Gold Coast are 4-14 SU, 8-10 ATS, 5-13 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Melbourne are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings against Gold Coast

    • 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS at the MCG

  • Melbourne are 9-11 SU, 5-15 ATS at the MCG under Simon Goodwin

    • 8-8 SU, 4-12 ATS as favourites

  • Gold Coast are 2-7 SU, 5-4 ATS in matches played interstate in 2018

  • Gold Coast are 1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS in their last 3 matches at the MCG

  • Gold Coast’s 1st half % in 2018 is 77.64% opposed to 52.98% in 2nd halves

 

Comments: I don’t trust Melbourne with a big line, especially at the MCG (ironically), in fact, this is the biggest favourites Melbourne have been on my database (2010 onwards) by far, with the next biggest line being -48.5. But at the same time, I don’t entirely trust the Gold Coast to keep this game competitive for a whole 120 minutes, so I’ll halve it.

Recommended Bet: 1u Gold Coast +32.5 1H @ $1.89 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

West Coast Eagles v Fremantle – Optus Stadium

 

Sunday Afternoon, Line -36.5, Total 163.5

West Coast are 14-4 SU, 10-8 ATS, 8-10 Over in 2018

Fremantle are 7-11 SU, 10-8 ATS, 6-12 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • West Coast are 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 matches against Fremantle

    • Average winning margin = 30.33 points

  • West Coast are 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS at Optus Stadium

  • Fremantle are 6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS at Optus Stadium

 

Comments: Fremantle have been very disappointing all season, especially in the last month as practically the only thing they had going for them was their home record has evaporated as they have lost two of their last 3 matches in Perth by over 9 goals. I get the feeling though that they would’ve had this game circled in their calendar for a while now, so they should be up for this game, especially as the Eagles don’t have Josh Kennedy. With that being said, surely the Eagles get the 4 points after their dismal effort last weekend against North Melbourne.

Recommended Bet: 1u West Coast 1-39 @ $2.30 (Sportsbet)

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