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AFL: Round 21 Preview and Tips
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by @betdetective

 

 

A cracker of a week for our AFL tips in round 20 going 5 and 1 for 3.45 units profit plus a recommended $50 at $5.0 on the Ladbrokes multi offer on the Dogs, Saints and Eagles also cashed. Our other multi with Sportsbet lost but didn’t take much shine of a great weekend on the punt!

 

On to round 21 then and we have a few bets lined up despite a lot of the early value having disappeared. Next year I will attempt to post some early bets on Monday mornings as this Monday we could have bet the Hawks at -14.5, Dogs at -9.5 and Saints at +33.5. All outstanding bets. 

First up on Friday night we have the Bulldogs and Pies at Etihad and the Doggies’ 8/4 record at home illustrates how tough it will be for the Pies. It doesn’t seem to matter who is in or out for the Dogs they always play the same brand of football, a combination of fast ball movement and superb structure and discipline in defence. Their defensive structure has been key in them keeping their opponents to an average of 73 points in 2016 and just 69 at Etihad. 

 

It’s hard to see Collingwood having enough firepower to trouble the Dogs here and there is still some value in the Dogs at the line as well as on the unders where their games have gone under the set total in 11 of the 12 games at Etihad.

1 unit Western Bulldogs -17.5 at $1.95 with Screenshot 2016-05-17 10.04.53

1 unit under 164.5 at $1.91 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

 

 

There are conflicting stats in the Lions vs Blues match with the Lions’ games having gone over in all nine of their fixtures at the Gabba and 14 of their 19 in all but the Blues games going under in 12 of their 19. It’s a no bet game for me. 

Hawthorn play North Melbourne at the MCG on Saturday and the last couple of times these two have met have been very feisty affairs. I hope they just get on with the football this time, unless anyone wants to deck Firrito in which case i’ll be all for it. He’s probably a great bloke who loves his Mum and works tirelessly for numerous worthy causes but still, what’s sport without a few irrational and unwarranted hate figures?

 

The stat we are interested in here is Hawthorn in the game after suffering a loss. They have won 14 of the 15 matches following a loss since the start of 2014 and they should do the same here. It looked like time had caught up with Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis in the Hawks’ midfield against the Dees last week but the same could be said of the game when they lost by 22 points to Port in round 21 last year and that was clearly just a blip. 

1 unit Hawthorn -17.5 at $1.95 with Screenshot 2016-05-17 10.04.53

 

 

 

The Saturday twilight game has GWS and West Coast facing off at Spotless Stadium with the Giants 24.5 point favourites. A four goal start against a team only a game behind on the ladder and who have won six of their last seven games seems a lot on the face of it but West Coast are so far inferior away from Domain Stadium it’s not funny. At home they average 9.5 more scoring shots than their opposition and 11.5 inside 50’s while in away games they average -4.6 and -5.4. 

 

GWS are +10.5 and +8.8 in scoring shots and inside 50’s at Spotless where they’ve knocked off Hawthorn, Sydney and the Bulldogs by 75, 42 and 25 points respectively. 

 

GWS are 5/1 ATS at home and West Coast are 2/6 away. 

 

GWS average 122 points at Spotless while keeping their opposition to an average of 78.

1 unit GWS -24.5 at $1.95 with Screenshot 2016-05-17 10.04.53

 

 

 

I had planned to tip St Kilda at anything above +25.5 and $3.90 straight up against the Swans but the arse has fallen out of this market and taken all the value with it. We’ll leave it for now and see if there are any overreactions when the teams are announced. If you are UK based then the +26.5 and $3.90 are bets with William Hill (UK). 

 

Port Adelaide vs Melbourne in Adelaide also looks too tricky to call with the general pattern for each team in 2016 being for them to follow a solid win with a disappointing loss. 

 

Moving swiftly along we come to Essendon vs Gold Coast at Etihad and i have to tip the Suns in this. They’ve won three of their last six while single digit losses to Melbourne and GWS were also creditable. The Bombers have lost their last 17 games by an average of 51 points. 

1 unit Gold Coast -21.5 at $1.95 with Screenshot 2016-05-17 10.04.53

 

 

Richmond vs Geelong at the MCG is the penultimate game of the round and one i’ll be staying out of at current odds. The Cats are 3/9 ATS away from Simonds Stadium and 0/7 ATS as 10+ point favs in 2016 but have won the last 10 against the Tigers. Cats to win but Tigers to cover would be my guess but guesses don’t usually take home the cash at the end of the day.

 

Fremantle vs Adelaide closes out the round in Perth and although i lean towards the Crows covering the 41.5 line i’m staying out for now. Freo have lost seven times at home this year by an average of 38 points which points strongly to the Crows covering and they also beat the Eagles by 29 at the ground in round 12 but the Crows on the road have also lost to the Hawks, Kangas, Bulldogs and Cats. 

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