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AFL: Round 21
free bets bet 365

 

by @thetrendbettor

 

 

Essendon v St Kilda – Etihad Stadium

 

Friday Night, Line -30.5, Total 177.5

Essendon are 10-9 SU, 9-10 ATS, 7-12 Over in 2018

St Kilda are 4-14-1 SU, 8-11 ATS, 8-11 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • St Kilda are 3-2 SU & ATS against Essendon since 2015

  • Essendon are 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

  • St Kilda are 2-7-1 SU, 3-7 ATS at Etihad in 2018

  • Seb Ross has recorded 30+ disposals in 6 of his 9 games at Etihad Stadium in 2018

  • Underdogs are 7-4 SU, 9-2 ATS in the last 11 matches between these two teams

 

Comments: I’m staying away from this game due to the fact that I vowed to stay away from St Kilda as much as possible after they got embarrassed by the Dogs last week. BUT… if I were to bet on this game, I would be very tempted to back the Saints for a couple of reasons – underdogs have done very well in this matchup, and I feel like Essendon will be flat after having their finals dreams crushed last week against Hawthorn.

 

Unofficial Recommended Bet: St Kilda win 1-39 @ $5.75 (Crownbet)

 

 

Hawthorn v Geelong – MCG

Saturday Afternoon, Line +7.5, Total 147.5 – Showers

Hawthorn are 12-7 SU, 12-7 ATS, 9-10 Over in 2018

Geelong are 11-8 SU, 10-9 ATS, 7-12 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Geelong are 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS in their last 5 matches against the Hawks

  • The margin has been 19 points or less between these two teams since 2010 is 13-7

  • Geelong are 15-15 SU, 10-20 ATS in their last 30 matches at the MCG

    • 10-8 SU, 3-15 ATS as favourites

  • Hawthorn are 8-4 SU, 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games at the MCG

  • Hawthorn are 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS in their last 4 matches at the MCG as underdogs

    • 4-0 SU & ATS against teams apart from Richmond

 

Comments:

What a game we have here with the biggest modern day rivals going at each other with so much to play so late in the season. I can’t understand why the Hawks are underdogs in this one – they’re higher on the ladder, and they’re playing on their home ground. 7.5 points seems like a lot to give in this matchup especially considering that 9 of the last 20 matches between these two teams have been decided by 7 points or less. Take the points.

 

Recommended Bet: 2u Hawthorn +8.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

 

 

 

Gold Coast Suns v Richmond – MCG

Saturday Afternoon, Line +61.5, Total 167.5

Gold Coast are 4-15 SU, 8-11 ATS, 6-13 Over in 2018

Richmond are 15-4 SU, 11-8 ATS, 10-9 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Richmond are 3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS in their last 3 matches against Gold Coast

  • Richmond are 0-4 SU & ATS outside of Melbourne in 2018

    • 15-0 SU, 11-4 ATS in Melbourne

  • Richmond are 1-1 SU & ATS at Metricon Stadium

  • Gold Coast are 0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS at Metricon Stadium in 2018

  • Gold Coast are 3-16 SU, 43.95% in 4th quarters in 2018

  • Richmond are 14-5 SU, 171.84% in 4th quarters in 2018

 

Comments:

Richmond will win this game, and should win fairly easily, but their poor interstate record in 2018 is enough to deter me from playing them.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Richmond -17.5 4Q @ $1.89 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

Port Adelaide v West Coast – Adelaide Oval

Saturday Twilight, Line -15.5, Total 145.5 – Showers

Port Adelaide are 12-7 SU, 8-11 ATS, 5-14 Over in 2018

West Coast are 15-4 SU, 11-8 ATS, 9-10 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • West Coast are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in their last 6 matches against Port Adelaide

    • 4-0 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval

  • West Coast are 6-2 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval

  • Under is 15-2 in the last 17 Port Adelaide matches as true home favourites

    • Average total points is 158.82

  • Port Adelaide are 10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS as 15+ point favourites at Adelaide Oval since 2017

 

Comments: Both teams have had an interesting build up to this game to say the least, with the Power seemingly robbed with a controversial goal conceded in the Showdown, and the Eagles being in the news all week with Andrew Gaff being suspended for the rest of the season. The Under is staring at me straight in the face, but the total is a little bit too low for me to play it. The Eagles have a great record against the Power, especially at the Adelaide Oval, so I’ll back them to win against the line despite being without Josh Kennedy and Andrew Gaff.

 

Recommended Bet: 1u West Coast +18.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

Collingwood v Brisbane Lions – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Night, Line -24.5, Total 186.5

Collingwood are 12-7 SU, 11-8 ATS, 10-9 Over in 2018

Brisbane are 4-15 SU, 10-9 ATS, 11-8 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Collingwood are 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS in their last 5 matches against Brisbane

    • Over is 5-0

  • Collingwood are 6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2014

  • Brisbane are 4-16 SU, 14-6 ATS in away matches under Chris Fagan

    • 1-6 SU, 5-2 ATS at Etihad Stadium

Comments: This is a real danger game for the Pies; playing against a team with a more than respectable % of 90.4, at a stadium with a lesser home ground advantage, and Collingwood have a more than troublesome injury list. The Lions have covered quite frequently on the road, especially at Etihad Stadium, so I see no reason as to why they could here.

 

Recommended Bet: 2u Brisbane +28.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

GWS Giants v Adelaide – Canberra

Saturday Night, Line -14.5, Total 151.5 – showers

GWS Giants are 12-6-1 SU, 9-10 ATS, 8-11 Over in 2018

Adelaide are 10-9 SU, 8-11 ATS, 8-11 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • GWS are 2-3 SU & ATS against Adelaide since 2015

  • GWS are 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in Canberra since 2015

  • Adelaide are 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 matches on the road

  • Under is 9-1 in Adelaide’s last 10 matches played on the road

 

Comments: Despite copping a heavy toll on the injury list last weekend, the Giants are arguably the hottest team in the league at the moment, and they’ll be pleased to play at a happy hunting ground in Canberra against a side that has struggled away from home in 2018.

Recommended Bet: 2u GWS -12.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs – Etihad Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line -22.5, Total 178.5

North Melbourne are 11-8 SU, 11-8 ATS, 7-12 Over in 2018

Western Bulldogs are 6-13 SU, 6-13 ATS, 8-11 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • North Melbourne are 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS against Western Bulldogs since 2016

  • Under is 9-2 in the 11 meetings between these two teams since 2012

  • Western Bulldogs are 5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

    • Under is 6-4

  • North Melbourne are 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

    • Under is 6-3

  • Ben Cunnington has had 27+ disposals in 8 of his last 11 matches at Etihad Stadium

    • Ben Cunnington has had 27+ disposals in each of his last 4 matches against Western Bulldogs

 

Comments: Ben Cunnington’s favourite ground is undoubtedly Etihad Stadium so I’ll back him to get over 25 once again. These two teams have played out some low scoring matches against each other, and with neither team producing high scores in 2018, I don’t see any reason as to why this would change in this one.

 

Recommended Bets:

  • 1.5 units Ben Cunnington over 25.5 disposals @ $1.86 (Bet365)

  • 1.5 units Under 178.5 Total Points Scored @ 1.90 (Bet365/Sportsbet)

 

 

 

Melbourne v Sydney – MCG

Sunday Afternoon, Line -19.5, Total 170.5

Melbourne are 12-7 SU, 13-6 ATS, 11-8 Over in 2018

Sydney are 12-7 SU, 8-11 ATS, 10-9 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Sydney are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS against Melbourne since 2012

    • 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS at the MCG

  • Under is 6-1 in the last 7 matches between these two teams

  • Melbourne are 4-5 SU & ATS at the MCG in 2018

  • Under is 12-6 in Sydney home and away season matches at the MCG since 2011

 

Comments: I’ve watched this line start at 14.5, and has been blown out all the way out to 19.5, and I don’t agree with the movement. Melbourne are agonisingly close to playing finals – it’s a simple equation – win and they’re in. We’ve seen the Dees in similar situations in the last couple of seasons, and I can’t help but feel they will be a little tight in this one. On the flip side, Sydney’s win last week may be the one that keeps they’re season alive, so their hunger lingers. They may be different outfits when compared to previous seasons, but this deep into the season, who do you trust more? I know who I trust less…

Recommended Bet: 2u Sydney +20.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

Fremantle v Carlton – Optus Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line -24.5, Total 164.5

Fremantle are 7-12 SU, 10-9 ATS, 7-12 Over in 2018

Carlton are 2-17 SU, 8-11 ATS, 10-9 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Fremantle are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS against Carlton since 2013

  • Under is 5-0 in the last 5 matches between these two teams

    • Highest scoring match = 147

  • Under is 5-0 in the last 5 matches between these two teams in Perth

  • Carlton are 3-14 SU, 7-10 ATS in matches played interstate under Brendon Bolton

  • Fremantle are 6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS at Optus Stadium in 2018

    • Under is 7-4

Comments: If I were to back a team ATS, it would have to be Fremantle, for a couple of reasons. One reason would be that they have done fairly well at home this year (although they have dropped off a little bit in the last month), and, well… did you watch Carlton get embarrassed to a 16-man GWS in the 4th quarter last week? I mean, I know Fremantle are no GWS, but at least Fremantle will have 18 men out there. The under is the stand out trend here, I’ll back it with a small play.

Recommended Bet: 1 unit Under 166.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.88 (Crownbet)

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