I didn’t see a ball kicked last week as i drank myself into a stupor with 17 other like minded idiots on Fraser Island for our own version of the Olympics (darts, pool, bocce and golf).
The three day hangover has mercifully abated and i’m back in the land of the living. I didn’t miss much from our betting point of view as we had a losing week with our AFL tips.
Quick Tips update:
AFL bets in 2016: 71
Profit: 15.36 units
AFL bets since 2014: 395
Profit: 48.53 units
First up on Friday night is West Coast vs Hawthorn in Perth and Eagles fans must be hoping the return of Nic Naitanui last week in their win over the Giants can spark their team into top form. They’ve been in good form at home in 2016 winning 10 of their 11 matches but that won’t win them a flag.
Hawthorn have been excellent away from the MCG equalling the Eagles’ Domain record at 10 and 1.
West Coast are favourites here and i’m not having that. In fact they are the same price ($2.30) as they were in round two against the same team but at the MCG. How the hell were West Coast favourites in that after taking a pummelling in last year’s Grand Final??!!
Hawthorn have been underdogs for just five matches since 2015 and they won three and lost two.
I’m also keen on the overs at the line of 166.5 but want to see it’s dry before taking the plunge. I’ll confirm on Twitter whether it’s a recommended bet or not. This will be the case for a few totals bets this weekend with an uncertain weather outlook.
1 unit Hawthorn to win at $2.30 with or an even better option is the same stake with at $2.10 as you’ll get your money back (up to $50) if the Hawks lead at any break and go on to lose.
have a promo this week with West Coast at $2.50. We might as well take the $25 on offer even if you’re on the Hawks..just top up with the same again on the Hawks at the $2.10 with Sportsbet.
The first match on Saturday is North Melbourne vs Sydney at Blundestones Arena in Tasmania and we are going against the crowd in this one. The Swans have been in very good form and reportedly impressed against the Saints last week. My form book says they were less that a goal up at half time, however, and North have an imperious record at the venue winning all seven games since 2014, covering in five. They’ve averaged 110 points for and 78 against.
The average total points spread in the seven games was 178 and the average points scored was 187 which makes the current line of 167.5 look attractive despite six of the seven games going under. Seven of Sydney’s 10 road games in 2016 have gone over.
Richmond play St Kilda at the G and I lean to the Saints but not strongly enough to lay down cold hard cash with the line at -4.5.
GWS vs Freo at Spotless should be a walk in the park for the Giants but the line of -68.5 leaves little room for a weak quarter, or a strong one from the Dockers.
I like the overs again at 179.5 with 199 points the average total at Spotless in 2016 and GWS likely to try to put a number on the board with % a big player in their top four quest.
There are possible showers in the morning in Sydney so again it makes sense to wait until closer to the first bounce before going in.
Gold Coast will have a lot of people swerving them after losing to Essendon last week but +25 inside 50’s in that game and shooting 9/15 against 11/9 suggests they should have won that match. Before then they’d lost by 2, 8 and 6 points and won three of the four previous matches. They have been underrated for this with Collingwood good on their day (they all are) but below average overall.
money back (up to $50 if the Suns lead at any break).
1 unit Gold Coast +24.5 at $1.93 with
Saturday night sees all of us with no social life settling down with a lonely drink or two to watch Port Adelaide and Adelaide go head to head at Adelaide Oval and I see absolutely no reason to jump off the good ship Crows at this point.
Since Adelaide Oval was re-built both teams have been strong there but Port’s 2016 record of 3/8 and 4/7 ATS is poor, especially when compared to their rival’s 7/3 and 5/5. Port’s scoring shot and inside 50 averages compared to their opponents has been worse at home than on the road in 2016 for the first time.
The Crows won the corresponding fixture in round two by 58 points and I think Port will do well to keep it below that number this time.
Carlton vs Melbourne is up next and their respective 6/14 and 10/10 straight up records paint an accurate picture but it’s Carlton’s 2nd half of the season which is the worry for Blues fans. They have lost nine on the spin while the Dees in the same period have beaten the Pies, Dockers, Suns, Hawks and Port.
1 unit Melbourne -22.5 at $1.93 with
Brisbane vs Geelong at the Gabba is not for me with a 60 odd point line while we have conflicting stats on the total points market with nine of the Lions’ 10 matches at the gabba having gone over but the Cats’ going 3/10 to the under on the road. I lean to the over with 5 again a factor but no bet for me as yet and no bet in the Bombers vs Bulldogs match.
EDIT: i’m going with the unders in the Bombers vs Bulldogs match. 1 unit under 166.5 at 1.85 with