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AFL: Round 22
free bets bet 365

 

by @thetrendbettor

 

 

 

Richmond v Essendon – MCG

 

Friday Night, Line -14.5, Total 166.5

Richmond are 16-4 SU, 12-8 ATS, 11-9 Over in 2018

Essendon are 11-9 SU, 10-10 ATS, 8-12 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Richmond are 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 matches against Essendon

    • 6 of the matches were under 39.5

  • Under is 10-4 in the last 14 matches between the two sides

  • Under is 7-1 in the last 8 Essendon matches at the MCG

  • Essendon are 6-8 SU, 5-9 ATS at the MCG under John Worsfold

  • Richmond are 18-0 SU, 16-2 ATS in their last 18 matches at the MCG

  • Under is 13-5 in the last 18 night matches at the MCG

 

Comments: The blatantly obvious trend to back is Richmond at the MCG, but I’m staying away from them here due to the fact that they are without Prestia, Lambert, Astbury, and their Captain, Trent Cotchin. I doubt that most of these names would be out if they didn’t have a top 2 position locked up, and I think that lack of killer instinct will leak into the playing group for the remainder of the home and away season, so be cautious when backing the Tigers.

The Under has been a winning play in multiple ways in the past – the matchup, the venue, the time of day – I like it here again.

 

Recommended Bet: 2u Under 166.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

Collingwood v Port Adelaide – MCG

Saturday Afternoon, Line -14.5, Total 149.5 – Showers

Collingwood are 13-7 SU, 12-8 ATS, 10-10 Over in 2018

Port Adelaide are 12-8 SU, 8-12 ATS, 5-15 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Port Adelaide are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS in their last 4 matches against Collingwood

    • 2-0 SU & ATS at the MCG

  • Under is 8-1 in the last 9 matches between these two sides

  • Collingwood are 11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS as favourites in 2018

  • Collingwood are 7-6 SU & ATS at the MCG in 2018

  • Port Adelaide are 5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS away from Adelaide Oval in 2018

    • Under is 7-2

  • Port Adelaide are 6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS at the MCG under Ken Hinkley

    • Under is 6-5

 

Comment: I like the Unders in this game, but I won’t make an official play until I see the weather closer to the bounce.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Under 149.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

edit: Official play: 1 unit under 151.5 @ $1.88 (BetEasy)

 

 

 

 

 

Geelong v Fremantle – GMHBA Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line -48.5, Total 152.5 – Showers

Geelong are 11-9 SU, 10-10 ATS, 7-13 Over in 2018

Fremantle are 8-12 SU, 11-9 ATS, 8-12 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Geelong are 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS against Fremantle since 2015

    • 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS at Kardinia Park

  • Under is 7-3 in the last 10 matches between these two teams

  • Geelong are 3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS against Fremantle at Kardinia Park since 2013

  • Geelong are 9-0 SU, 3-6 ATS as 50+ point favourites at Kardinia Park since 2012

  • Fremantle are 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS away from Perth in 2018

 

Comments: I’m staying away from this one as I feel like Geelong winning by 20 points is just as likely as them winning by 80.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Geelong 1-39 @ $2.90 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

GWS Giants v Sydney – Spotless Stadium

Saturday Twilight, Line -4.5, Total 165.5

GWS Giants are 13-6-1 SU, 10-10 ATS, 9-11 Over in 2018

Sydney are 13-7 SU, 9-11 ATS, 10-10 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • GWS are 3-2 & ATS in their last 5 matches against Sydney

  • GWS are 2-2 SU & ATS against Sydney at Spotless Stadium

  • Lachie Whitfield had 15 disposals in his last match against Sydney

  • GWS are 12-3-1 SU, 4-12 ATS at Spotless Stadium since 2016

 

Comments: I don’t see a lot of value in the spread or totals market, but cast your mind back to when these two teams faced off against each other way back in April, and Swans tagger George Hewett completely shut down Giants young gun, Lachie Whitfield. Whitfield only had 15 disposals (season low) and Sydney ended up winning that game, so why shouldn’t we expect Longmire to assign Hewett with the same job?

Recommended Bets

  • 2u Lachie Whitfield under 29.5 disposals @ $1.86 (Bet365)

  • 1u Lachie Whitfield under 24.5 disposals @ 4.5 (Bet365)

 

 

 

Gold Coast v Brisbane Lions – Metricon Stadium

Saturday Night, Line +27.5, Total 179.5

Gold Coast are 4-16 SU, 8-12 ATS, 7-13 Over in 2018

Brisbane are 4-16 SU, 10-10 ATS, 11-9 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Brisbane are 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS in their last 7 matches against Gold Coast

    • 2-1 SU & ATS at the Gabba

  • Over is 6-2 in the last 8 Q-Clashes

  • Gold Coast’s 1st half % is 71.1%, 2nd half % is 51.28%

  • Brisbane’s 1st half % is 73.52 %, 2nd half % is 106.62

 

Comments: It’s hard to mount a case for the Suns in this game (like most games), but if there is a game that they would most likely get up for, it’s against their neighbouring rivals, especially since they have been labelled as “soft” by Brisbane players in the lead up. The first half will be up for grabs, but no matter what happens in the first half, I see the Lions either extending their lead or coming back from behind in the second half.

Recommended Bet: 2u Brisbane -13.5 2H @ $1.85 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

St Kilda v Hawthorn – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Night, Line +31.5, Total 175.5

St Kilda are 4-15-1 SU, 8-12 ATS, 9-11 Over in 2018

Hawthorn are 13-7 SU, 13-7 ATS, 9-11 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Hawthorn are 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS against the Saints since 2014

  • Hawthorn are 2-1-0 SU, 2-1 ATS against the Saints at Etihad Stadium since 2010

  • Hawthorn are 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2016

  • Hawthorn are 10-1 SU, 3-8 ATS as 30+ favourites since 2016

  • St Kilda are 2-8-1 SU, 3-8 ATS at Etihad in 2018

  • Seb Ross has recorded 30+ disposals in 7 of his 10 games at Etihad Stadium in 2018

 

Comments:

My gut feel is that I would look towards the Hawks 1-39, but I am not putting a limit on how badly the Saints can be beaten by, they are rubbish.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.30

 

 

 

 

Carlton v Western Bulldogs – Etihad Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line +27.5, Total 170.5

Carlton are 2-18 SU, 8-12 ATS, 11-9 Over in 2018

Western Bulldogs are 7-13 SU, 7-13 ATS, 8-12 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Western Bulldogs are 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS against Carlton under Luke Beveridge

    • Under is 4-0

    • Each game has been won by 1-39

  • Western Bulldogs are 6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

    • Under is 7-5

  • Carlton are 0-6 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

    • Under is 3-3

 

Comments: The trends suggest either (or both) for the Dogs to win 1-39, or the “under”, but I don’t like betting in matches involving the Blues as they are just far too unpredictable. I’m steering clear.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Western Bulldogs 1-39 / Under 170.5 @ $3.80 (Sportsbet)

Recommended Promotional Bet: Macrae 32+ possessions & Bulldogs win @ $2.50 (Ladbrokes)

 

 

 

West Coast v Melbourne – Optus Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line -6.5, Total 168.5

West Coast are 16-4 SU, 12-8 ATS, 9-11 Over in 2018

Melbourne are 12-8 SU, 13-7 ATS, 11-9 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • West Coast are 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS against Melbourne under Adam Simpson

    • 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS in Perth

  • Melbourne are 8-4 SU & ATS in interstate matches under Simon Goodwin

  • Melbourne are 8-2 SU, 9-1 ATS away from the MCG in 2018

  • West Coast are 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS at Optus Stadium

  • All 3 Melbourne matches away from the MCG as underdogs have been decided by 13 points or less

 

Comments: Melbourne have played their best footy away from the MCG, but the Eagles in Perth is one of the toughest tasks in footy. I don’t know will win this game, but I strongly believe it will be close.

Recommended Bet: 1 unit – Either Team by Under 19.5 Points @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

Adelaide v North Melbourne – Adelaide Oval

Sunday Twilight, Line -18.5, Total 187.5

Adelaide are 10-10 SU, 8-12 ATS, 8-12 Over in 2018

North Melbourne are 11-9 SU, 11-9 ATS, 7-13 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Adelaide are 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS against North Melbourne since 2013

    • Over is 8-1

    • Average total points = 200

  • Home teams 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS in the last 8 matches between these two teams

  • North Melbourne are 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS in away interstate matches in 2018

  • North Melbourne are 0-7 SU & ATS in South Australia since 2012

    • Highest team total since 2013 – 79

 

 

Comments: When I initially saw the pregame over/under, I immediately thought that the number was way too high, but then I saw that 8 of the last 9 meetings have gone “over”, so I’m not going with my instincts. The trends are also telling me that Adelaide should win ATS, but I feel that with such a high scoring match expected from the bookies, there’s more value in North Melbourne not going over their expected team total.

Recommended Bet: 2 units North Melbourne Under 83.5 Total Team Points @ $1.95 (Bet365)

 

 

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