Should we even be betting on round 23 matches? I don’t know but we’ll avoid the games we don’t like the look of as usual and back what we think is value.
Geelong vs Adelaide
The Cats have won the last four at Simonds while the Crows have equalled that record in Adelaide. I can see this trend coming to a halt this week as the Crows look for their 5th win on the bounce to take them into the finals and I can see them doing so by a decent margin with the build up for the Cats hardly ideal with the speculation over who is staying and who is not from their flag winning players and the Crows needed a win.
0.5 units Crows by 25+ at $2.90 with
Brisbane vs Western Bulldogs
The Lions are terrible and the Bulldogs are not but the Bulldogs are resting players which could be risky. I don’t think the Lions will be winning this and with the #1 draft pick at stake the management probably don’t even want them to. They should get inside the spread, however.
1 unit Brisbane +29.5 at $1.92 with
West Coast vs St Kilda
West Coast should cruise to the win but it would be a surprise if they weren’t to take their foot off the gas late in the piece which should give the Saints and the unders a good chance of covering the spread.
1 unit under 195.5 at $1.90 with
Melbourne vs GWS
The Demons are not too bad when they click but these occasions seem to be getting less frequent. The Giants have won all 9 games against bottom 6 teams this year and should do so again at a Stadium that Melbourne have lost the last 24 games straight.
1 unit GWS -10.5 at $1.98 with
Collingwood vs Essendon
Let’s go for a final hurrah of the home and away season with a straight up bet on the Bombers to beat the Pies. They’ve covered the spread in both of their games under Matthew Egan while Collingwood have lost 8 of their last 10.