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AFL: Round 23 Preview and Tips
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by @betdetective

 

First up on Saturday is Geelong vs Melbourne and at first I was tempted by the Cats at -31.5 but their 1/5 ATS record as 19.5 to 39.5 favourites put me off. It’s also hard to call how the Dees will react to their piss poor effort in round 22 which saw their slim finals hopes dashed.

 

 

Essendon and Carlton meet at the MCG on Saturday and it’s Carlton’s 6/2 ATS record at the G that has me looking at them to win this by the required three and a bit goals. They beat a well below par Melbourne side last week to snap a nine game losing run and they’ll be keen to go out with a win in what has been an up and down year. They have won and covered in both games that they’ve started favourite for this year including by 15 points over the Bombers in round 6 when the closing line was 14.5.

1 unit Carlton -18.5 at $1.92 with Screenshot 2016-08-12 09.14.01

 

 

Sydney and Richmond take to the SCG for the Saturday twilight game and the Tigers were given a whopping start by the bookies of 59.5 points (with TAB). This is the biggest start they’ve had against any team since 2003. This line has now gone but they are still +56.5 with Pinny.

They have been pretty damned awful all year but going back to 2014 the Tigers have an 11/6 record ATS as 20+ point underdogs.

We know they can compete with the very best on their day so we’ll take a stab at them in the head to head market too at odds that are just too long to ignore.

1 unit Richmond +56.5 at $1.95 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

0.33 units Richmond to win at $14.5 with Screenshot 2016-05-17 10.04.53

 

 

Gold Coast welcome Port Adelaide to Metricon stadium in match where one can make a case for both teams at the current line of 16.5. The Suns looked vastly improved in the weeks before their capitulation against the Pies last week but have an ordinary record as underdogs at home while Port tend to cover when they win and not when they lose. they’ve won nine times in 2016, covering in eight and lost 12 times, covering just once.

I think this is a game to sit out pre match and maybe get involved in-play.

The shambles that is Brad Scott’s North Melbourne have to lift themselves to face GWS at Etihad on Saturday night and it’s hard to guess the state of mind of four of their key players who have been discarded just before the finals. 

GWS have a 9/4 record away from Spotless this year which is an indication of just how much they’ve improved. North’s 5/7 ATS record at Etihad does little to put me off getting with the Giants.

1 unit GWS -11.5 at $1.95 with Screenshot 2016-05-17 10.04.53

 

 

St Kilda vs Brisbane is first up on Sunday and the line of 54.5 looks plenty big enough but I can’t recommend backing Brisbane with the crap they serve up week after week. 

 

Hawthorn are coming off a loss so we know what happens here, don’t we? They are now 15/1 off a loss since 2014 and I don’t expect them to lose this one. Can they cover the 22.5 point line though? I think so. Collingwood have been good in the odd game in 2016 but their overall level of form has been decidedly average.

1 unit Hawthorn -22.5 at $1.92 with Screenshot 2014-05-07 13.02.14

 

 

Fremantle say cheerio to Pav to close off the AFL home and away season when they play the Western Bulldogs in Perth.

The Doggies continue to win despite being ravaged by injuries while the Dockers have been putrid all year, including at home where they have lost nine of their 11 games, covering in just four.

The Dogs are 5/2 and 5/2 away from Etihad and although it should not be a surprise if the Dockers lift for Pav’s finale and the Dogs finally feel their injuries I still have to be with the Dogs.

1 unit Bulldogs -16.5 at $1.92 with Screenshot 2014-05-09 12.32.15

 

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