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AFL: Round 23
free bets bet 365

 

by @thetrendbettor

 

 

Port Adelaide v Essendon – Adelaide Oval

 

Friday Night, Line -8.5, Total 172.5

Port Adelaide are 12-9 SU, 8-13 ATS, 6-15 Over in 2018

Essendon are 11-10 SU, 11-10 ATS, 8-13 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Port Adelaide are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS against Essendon since 2014

    • 1-1 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval

  • Essendon are 4-1 SU & ATS in interstate matches in 2018

    • Under is 4-1

  • Essendon haven’t conceded over 63 points in their last 4 interstate matches, including against GWS and WCE

  • Under is 21-4 in Port Adelaide night matches at Adelaide Oval

    • Under 172.5 is 17-8

  • Under is 10-3 in Essendon matches away from Etihad Stadium in 2018

  • Under is 9-4 in Friday night matches played outdoors in 2018

 

Comments:

Port Adelaide night matches at the Adelaide Oval is almost always an automatic “unders” bet, but with Round 23 matches being recognised as one of the highest scoring rounds of the season, I’m not going for the maximum 3 units. With that being said, 172.5 is a high number that should be taken advantage of.

 

Recommended Bet: 2u Under 172.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Geelong v Gold Coast – GMHBA Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line -75.5, Total 179.5

Geelong are 12-9 SU, 11-10 ATS, 8-13 Over in 2018

Gold Coast are 4-17 SU, 9-12 ATS, 7-14 Over in 2018

 

 

Key Trends:

  • Geelong are 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS against Gold Coast since 2015

    • Over is 3-1

  • Over is 9-1 in this matchup

    • Last match was the only “under”

  • Geelong are 10-0 SU, 4-6 ATS as 50+ point favourites at Kardinia Park since 2012

  • Gold Coast are 2-7 SU, 5-4 ATS away from QLD in 2018

  • Gold Coast are 0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS at Kardinia Park

 

Comments: This 75.5 line is the highest we have seen in the 2018 AFL Season, and I’m not saying it’s too high because the Cats could easily win this by over 100 points if they wanted to, but it’s too hard to predict what the mentality the Cats will have after half time if they already have the 4 points sewn up as the Cats will be locked into 7th or 8th. No bet.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Ablett 30+ Disposals / Hawkins Most Goals / T Kelly Anytime Goal Scorer @ $3.60 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Richmond v Western Bulldogs – MCG

Saturday Afternoon, Line -42.5, Total 171.5

Richmond are 17-4 SU, 12-9 ATS, 11-10 Over in 2018

Western Bulldogs are 8-13 SU, 7-14 ATS, 9-12 Over in 2018

 

 

Key Trends:

  • Western Bulldogs are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS against Richmond since 2014

  • Richmond are 19-0 SU, 16-3 ATS in their last 19 matches at the MCG

  • Western Bulldogs are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS at the MCG since 2016

  • Jack Riewoldt has kicked the most goals in the match in 5 of his last 7 matches against the Bulldogs

 

Comments: Neither team has anything tangible to play for, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers were very Riewoldt-centric to ensure that he wins the Coleman Medal. Riewoldt has played well against the Dogs in the last few years so it should be a good match-up for him.

Recommended Bet: 1 unit – Jack Riewoldt Most Goals @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Fremantle v Collingwood – Optus Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line +33.5, Total 171.5

Fremantle are 8-13 SU, 11-10 ATS, 9-12 Over in 2018

Collingwood are 14-7 SU, 13-8 ATS, 11-10 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Collingwood are 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS against Fremantle since 2016

  • Collingwood are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS in Perth since 2010

  • Collingwood are 10-9 SU, 14-5 ATS in interstate matches since 2015

    • 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS as favourites

      • Over is 4-0

    • Fremantle are 7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS in Perth in 2018

    • Fremantle are 6-14 SU, 10-10 ATS as underdogs in Perth against interstate sides since 2016

 

Comments: Fremantle produced probably the worst performance from any club in 2018, so they will be keen to bounce back at home, but I think Collingwood just have too much to play. A win will guarantee a top 4 spot for the Pies, whereas a loss guarantees a spot out of the double chance slot. Collingwood to win by a few goals.

 

Recommended Bet: 1 unit – Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.30 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

Carlton v Adelaide – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Night, Line +38.5, Total 178.5

Carlton are 2-19 SU, 9-12 ATS, 11-10 Over in 2018

Adelaide are 11-10 SU, 8-13 ATS, 8-13 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Adelaide are 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS against Carlton since 2015

  • Adelaide are 3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS away from Adelaide Oval in 2018

    • 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS as favourites

  • Adelaide are 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2016

  • Carlton are 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS against interstate sides at Etihad Stadium since 2017

 

Comments: A dead rubber I don’t really want to touch.

 

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Adelaide -38.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

Sydney v Hawthorn – SCG

Saturday Night, Line -7.5, Total 143.5

Sydney are 14-7 SU, 10-11 ATS, 10-11 Over in 2018

Hawthorn are 14-7 SU, 13-8 ATS, 9-12 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Hawthorn are 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS against Sydney since 2014

  • 11 of the last 15 meetings between these two sides have been decided by 19 points or less

    • 5 of the last 6 matches in Sydney

  • Sydney are 5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS in home matches in 2018

    • 6 of the 10 matches have been decided by 19 points or less

 

Comments: There aren’t many games that mean much in this round of footy, but this battle between these two rivals has a spot in the top 4 on the line. This match-up has been closely contested in the last few years, and this chapter of this great rivalry promises something similar.

Recommended Bet: 3 units – Either Team by 19.5 Points or Less @ $2 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Brisbane Lions v West Coast – Gabba

Sunday Afternoon, Line +9.5, Total 151.5

Brisbane are 5-16 SU, 10-11 ATS, 11-10 Over in 2018

West Coast are 16-5 SU, 12-9 ATS, 10-11 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • West Coast are 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 matches against Brisbane

    • 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS at the Gabba

  • West Coast are 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS in interstate matches in 2018

    • 5 of the 6 wins have been decided by 39 or less

    • 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS as favourites

      • Both wins were decided by 39 or less

    • Brisbane are 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS at the Gabba in 2018

      • All 8 losses have been decided by 39 points or less

 

Comments: The Lions have lost 80% of their matches at home by under 39 points in 2018, whereas the Eagles have won 56% of their road matches by under 39 points, and 100% when they’re favourites. That’s enough to convince me the Eagles will win this by under that margin.

Recommended Bet: 2 units – West Coast 1-39 @ $2.18 (Ladbrokes)

 

 

 

 

Melbourne v GWS Giants – MCG

Sunday Afternoon, Line -15.5, Total 179.5

Melbourne are 13-8 SU, 14-7 ATS, 12-9 Over in 2018

GWS Giants are 13-7-1 SU, 10-11 ATS, 9-12 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Melbourne are 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS against GWS since 2015

  • Home team is 8-2 SU, 9-1 ATS in the meetings between these two teams

  • GWS Giants are 5-4-1 SU, 4-6 ATS in away matches in 2018

  • GWS Giants are 2-11 SU, 5-8 ATS at the MCG

  • Melbourne are 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS against interstate sides at the MCG since 2016

    • 7 of the 10 matches have been decided by 24 points or less

 

Recommended Bet: Now that the Demons have broken their 12-year finals drought, they’ll be looking to finish off the home and away season with another win; one that could see them finish with a home elimination final. If Fremantle somehow manage to beat Collingwood, this game will be for a top 4 position, and with neither team having a great edge over the other, I expect this to be a close one.

Recommended Bet: 1 unit – Either Team by Under 24.5 Points @ $1.98 (Ladbrokes)

St Kilda v North Melbourne – Etihad Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line +22.5, Total 182.5

St Kilda are 4-16-1 SU, 9-12 ATS, 9-12 Over in 2018

North Melbourne are 11-10 SU, 12-9 ATS, 7-14 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • North Melbourne are 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS against St Kilda since 2015

  • St Kilda are 2-9-1 SU, 4-8 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

  • North Melbourne are 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

  • Ben Cunnington has had 26+ disposals in 9 of his last 12 matches at Etihad Stadium

 

Comments: Will wait for the right market to pop on on Sunday before I make an official bet.

 

Sunday Update – I like Ben Cunnington to find the pill here at Etihad Stadium, but I’m reluctant to play a big bet due to the fact that the possibility of a high scoring game will not suit his game style.

Recommended Bet: 1 unit – Ben Cunnington over 25.5 Disposals @ $1.95 (Bet365)

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