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AFL Round 4 - Betting Preview
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@TheTrendBettor’s Round 4 Preview

 

 

Adelaide $1.18 v Collingwood $5 – Adelaide Oval

Friday Night, Line -31.5, Total 169.5, Light Rain

Key Trends:

  • Adelaide are 4-0-1 SU, 3-2 ATS against Collingwood since 2014

    • 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS at Adelaide Oval

  • Adelaide are 19-5 SU, 17-7 ATS at the Adelaide Oval against interstate teams, under Don Pyke

  • Collingwood are 7-8 SU, 12-3 ATS in interstate matches since 2015

  • Collingwood are 0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS at the Adelaide Oval

    • Biggest losing margin is 28 points

 

Recommended Bet: 1.5u Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.25 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

GWS Giants $1.17 v Fremantle $5.25 – UNSW Stadium (Manuka Oval)

Saturday Afternoon, Line -33.5, Total 170.5

Key Trends:

  • GWS are 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS at Manuka Oval since 2015

    • Average score is 103 v 60.9 in that time

  • Fremantle are 3-8 SU, 6-5 ATS in their last 11 interstate matches

  • GWS are 3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS in their last 3 against Fremantle

  • GWS are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 home games the week after losing to Sydney

    • Average winning margin = 77.8 points

 

Recommended Bet: 1u GWS Giants -31.5 @ $1.92 (Crownbet)

 

 

 

 

Richmond $1.07 v Brisbane Lions $8 – MCG

Saturday Afternoon, Line -42.5, Total 177.5

Key Trends:

  • Brisbane are 1-11 SU, 9-3 ATS in interstate matches under Chris Fagan

    • 1-6 SU, 6-1 ATS in Victoria

    • 0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS at the MCG

  • Richmond are 8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS against Brisbane since 2012

    • Away sides are 8-0 ATS in this match up

  • Richmond are 13-2 SU, 12-3 ATS in their last 14 games at the MCG

  • Richmond are 10-0 SU, 2-8 ATS in matches played in Victoria as 40 points favourites

Recommended Bet: 1u Richmond win + Brisbane +42.5 @ $2.38 (Sportsbet same game multi)

 

 

 

 

Western Bulldogs $3.10 v Sydney $1.38 – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Twilight, Line 15.5, Total 184.5

Key Trends:

  • Under Luke Beveridge, the Bulldogs are 4-1 SU & ATS against the Swans

  • Bulldogs are 8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS as underdogs at Etihad Stadium under Luke Beveridge

  • Bulldogs are 11-4 SU & ATS against interstate side at Etihad Stadium under Luke Beveridge, but 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS in the last 4 such occasions

  • Sydney are 14-4 SU, 12-6 ATS at Etihad Stadium under John Longmire\

  • In the last 11 Sydney matches at Etihad Stadium, they have covered the line as well as hitting the over 8 times

 

Recommended Bet: 1.5u Sydney -18.5 / over 183.5 @ $3.68 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

North Melbourne $1.50 v Carlton $2.60 – Blundstone Arena

Saturday Night, Line -12.5, Total 178.5

Key Trends:

  • North are 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 matches at Blundstone Arena

    • Losing to GWS & Sydney

  • North are 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS against Carlton since 2015

  • Carlton are 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS in interstate matches under Brendon Bolton

Recommended Bet: 1.5u North Melbourne -13.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

West Coast $1.14 v Gold Coast $5.75 – Optus Stadium

Saturday Night, Line -34.5, Total 177.5

Key Trends:

  • Eagles are 18-0 SU, 13-5 ATS in home matches where they are favourites by 30 points or more

  • Gold Coast are 0-15 SU, 4-11 ATS in interstate matches where they are underdogs by 30 points or more

  • Gold Coast are 1-8 SU & ATS in Perth

  • Eagles are 2-1-1 SU, 2-2 ATS in their last 4 matches against the Suns

  • Jarryd Lyons has racked up 30+ possessions in 2 of the 3 games this season. The only unsuccessful occasion was in the downpour vs North Melbourne in round 1

Recommended Bet: 1u Jarryd Lyons 30 or more possessions + West Coast win @ $3.60 (Sportsbet same game multi)

 

 

 

Essendon $2.30 v Port Adelaide $1.64 – Etihad Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line +7.5, Total 187.5

Key Trends:

  • The week after winning by under a goal as 40+ point favourites, teams are 2-5-1 SU, 2-6 ATS (Port Adelaide this week)

  • Port are 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2014

  • Under Ken Hinkley, Port are 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS as favourites at Etihad Stadium

  • Since 2012, Essendon are 5-2 SU & ATS against Port Adelaide

    • 3-1 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium

  • Essendon are 7-2 SU & ATS in their last 9 matches as underdogs

  • Essendon beat Port Adelaide 131-61 in Round 12, 2017 at Etihad Stadium

Recommended Bet: 2u Essendon win @ $2.30 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

Hawthorn $2.20 v Melbourne $1.70 – MCG

Sunday Afternoon, Line +5.5, Total 188.5

Key Trends:

  • Hawthorn have beaten Melbourne in 14 of the last 15 meetings

    • 8-3 ATS since 2010

  • Melbourne are 7-7 SU, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 matches at the MCG

  • Melbourne are 6-7 SU, 2-10 ATS in their last 12 matches at the MCG as favourites

  • Hawthorn are 5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games at the MCG

  • Melbourne haven’t lost by over 39 points in Melbourne since Round 20, 2015 – spanning 16 matches

Recommended Bet: 2u Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.75 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Geelong $1.24 v St Kilda $4.45 – GMHBA Stadium

Sunday Twilight, Line -28.5, Total 179.5

Key Trends:

  • Under Chris Scott, Geelong are 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS the week after playing in Perth

  • Geelong 16-2 SU, 13-5 ATS in their last 18 matches at GMHBA

  • Geelong are 2-0 SU & ATS in their last 2 matches against St Kilda at GMHBA, winning by an average of 98.5 points

  • Geelong are 6-1-1 SU, 6-2 ATS against St Kilda under Chris Scott

  • St Kilda are 4-15 SU, 7-12 ATS in matches outside of Melbourne under Alan Richardson

Recommended Bet: 1u Geelong -28.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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