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AFL: Round 4 Early Totals Bets
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We went 2/1 with our totals picks last week and now stand at 7/4 for the year.

 

 

I’ve updated the database with round 3’s results and a quick look at the stats for each game suggests that GWS, Carlton and Gold Coast were all well worth their wins while Melbourne had +6 scoring shots and +11 inside 50’s in their loss to the Cats. The Cats kicked 15 goals without kicking a behind and shot 77% accuracy for goal for the whole match. They managed to kick a heap of goals from between 10 and 15 metres out, bang in front of the goals. 

 

I’ve been through all the round 4 games and worked out my numbers and there are two  early bets.

 

Round 4 gets underway on Thursday night out West where the West Coast Eagles take on the Sydney Swans with each team coming off a loss and Sydney staring at a 0-4 start if they get chinned here. 

 

 

The question is has John Longmire left his squad a bit short during pre-season in the knowledge that a top 4 finish is no longer a pre – requisite with the week off at the end of the home and away season? It won’t be any surprise if both the Hawks and the Swans finish stronger than most in the weeks before the finals. 

 

 

 

Anyway… on to the points markets with a quick word to West Coast’s match going under at the MCG in the last round against the Tigers. Most fans would say WCE are a high scoring team but when playing interstate their games are now 6/20 over/under since 2014.

 

Also, after a rash of overs totals in rounds 1 and 2 we saw 8 games go under in round 3. 

 

 

 

 

 

West Coast vs Sydney

My number for Domain night games is 161, rising to 164 for West Coast games. Already the line of 185.5 looks attractive.

  • West Coast have gone 20/19 over/under at Domain since 2014 with the average line 177

  • In night and twilight games they are 10/13 with an average line of 177 and average total of 168 and 171 taking out a very wet game in round 18 of 2014. 

  • Sydney are 14/20 away from SCG and ANZ with an average total of 164 and average line of 171.

All that taken into account sees my idea of the total points line around the 174 mark.

Back under 185.5 at $1.90 with Screenshot 2014-05-21 12.49.05

 

 

 

Melbourne vs Fremantle

My starting point for MCG day games is 170 points. 

  • Melbourne games at the MCG since 2014 average 162 (ave line 170)

  • Melbourne day and twilight games at the MCG since 2014 average 161 (ave line 172)

  • Melbourne are 4/9 over/under in MCG games since 2016.

  • Freo are 14/18 away from Domain and 3/6 since 2016.

My line looks like 172.

 

Back under 180.5 at $1.90 with Screenshot 2014-05-21 12.49.05

 

 

 

 

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