The AFL RESULTS DATBASE has been updated with all the numbers from round 6
There were two big shocks in round 6 with both Geelong and Sydney getting turned over as 3+ goal favourites while Hawthorn undid the good work of round 5 by getting absolutely pummelled by St Kilda in Tasmania.
The most impressive teams on the stats were Adelaide, Port and the Saints while Gold Coast could have come away with a win over North with a bit more luck and killer instinct.
Round 7 kicks off tonight at Etihad Stadium when the Saints welcome the Giants in what will be a rare primetime slot for St Kilda.
The Saints will come into this game full of confidence after thrashing the Hawks last week, especially as they return to their favoured venue, but i’m keen on the Giants putting them very much back in their box.
St Kilda have been beaten by 30 points to Melbourne and 38 to Geelong at Etihad this term and I’m backing GWS to top both of those as they click into top gear.
1 unit GWS by 40+ in the tri bet market at $4.33 with
My total points line for North vs Adelaide at Blundstones Arena was originally 196 but with rain forecast it’s worth a chance on the under 180.5 at $1.94 with
I also liked the minus 37.5 Adelaide but if that rain arrives it could be somewhat of a leveller.
Collingwood and Carlton face off at the MCG with both teams coming off excellent wins in round 6. I lean towards the Pies covering the three and a half goal line but again the possible rain could level things up. if the rain does not look like materialising tomorrow and the winds are not too high i shall try to get on the over 163.5.
EDITED 11.38am Saturday – back 1 unit over 159.5 at $1.91 with
I’m going for a shock in the Port vs West Coast match by taking West Coast at $3.65 with for the win. Port do look good but West Coast are no mugs and Ports’s 6/8 win record at Adelaide Oval since the start of last year is no great shakes while the Eagles are 5/3 away from Domain in the same time including wins over Port themselves, North and Adelaide.
Gold Coast and Geelong the odds look about right but i’ll take the overs should the line drop to 193 from the current 195.
The Bulldogs and Tigers at Etihad should be cracker and the 3.5 goals handicap the Tigers face is understandable at Etihad but I don’t rule the Tigers out of giving the Dogs a scare and are worth a bet at $3.64 with to do so. They got hammered in the end in Adelaide last week but they aren’t the first and won’t be the last to get swept aside by the Crows this year and they held their own early winning the opening quarter 39-30 before kicking 1-6 in the second to see their lead well and truly taken off them. The same 1-6 in the 3rd sealed their fate.
i’m going all out on the underdogs this week and have also backed Brisbane to beat Sydney at $9.20. They’ve only beaten four of the poorest teams since the start of 2016 but the Swans are 0-6 for a reason. I will look to trade should they get to $3 in play and for that reason i’m not putting them up as a bet.
I’m not getting involved in the Dees vs Hawks but will keep an eye on the weather for a possible unders bet.
The last match of the round is Freo vs Essendon and i’m taking Freo -11.5 at $1.92 with so let’s hope Joe Daniher is wearing his Nike Spoons again this week.