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AFL: Round 8 Trends and Tips
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by @thetrendbettor

 

GWS Giants $1.47 vs West Coast $2.80 – Spotless Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line -14.5, Total 156.5

 

GWS are 4-2-1 SU, 1-6 ATS, 2-5 Over in 2018

West Coast are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS, 3-4 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • GWS are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 matches against the Eagles in 2017

  • GWS are 7-1-1 SU, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 matches at Spotless Stadium

    • 6 wins have been under 39 points

  • WCE are 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS in their 7 matches interstate

Comments:

Giants were very disappointing last weekend down in Geelong, but they welcome back Jeremy Cameron and Rory Lobb, which can only help their chances of bouncing back at home. On the flip side, the Eagles have been mighty impressive, but they’re going to be missing Naitanui, Shuey, and McGovern. The Giants should bounce back, but they’ve failed to blow teams out at home in the last little while.

Recommended Bet: 1u GWS 1-39 @ $2.15 (Crownbet)

 

 

 

 

Carlton $3.15 v Essendon $1.42 – MCG

Saturday Afternoon, Line +17.5, Total 161.5

Carlton are 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS, 2-5 Over in 2018

Essendon are 2-5 SU & ATS & Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Carlton are 9-12-1 SU, 19-3 ATS in their last 22 day/twilight matches at the MCG since 2014

  • Carlton are 2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS against Essendon since 2015

  • Essendon are 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS at the MCG since 2017

Comment: Carlton ATS at the MCG in afternoon matches has become one of my favourite bets, but I’m deciding to “buy” a few more points here, because Carlton surely win by over 4 goals… could they?

 

Recommended Bet: 2u Either Team By Under 24.5 Points @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Gold Coast $3.40 v Melbourne $1.39 – GABBA

Saturday Twilight, Line +19.5, Total 172.5

Gold Coast are 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, 1-6 Over in 2018

Melbourne are 4-3 SU & ATS, 3-4 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Melbourne are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS against Gold Coast since 2015

  • Gold Coast are 3-8 SU & ATS in their 11 matches at the Gabba

  • Melbourne are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS at the Gabba since 2010

  • Melbourne are 5-5 SU, 7-3 ATS in true away interstate matches since 2016

Comments: After starting the year on fire, the Suns have been brought down to Earth a little bit, winning only one of their last 5 matches. The Dees, on the other hand, are starting to click. The inclusion of Tom McDonald makes a huge difference to Melbourne’s structure, and I expect the Dees to run away with this game, something they have done in their last couple of matches.

Recommended Bets: 1u Melbourne -19.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

Port Adelaide $2.40 v Adelaide $1.65 – Adelaide Oval

Saturday Twilight, Line +8.5, Total 170.5

Port are 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, 2-5 Over in 2018

Adelaide are 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 2-5 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Adelaide are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS in the last 5 Showdowns

  • Over is 10-3 in the last 13 Showdowns

  • Over 170.5 is 13-0 in the last 13 showdowns

Comments: Gun to head, I would say that Adelaide wins this one, but Port will be keen to bounce back, so it’s deterring me a little bit. The lowest total points scored in the last 13 Showdowns is 174, so I’ll back it to go over again.

Recommended Bet: 1.5u Over 170.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Western Bulldogs $1.40 v Brisbane Lions $3.10 – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Night, Line -17.5, Total 170.5

Western Bulldogs are 3-4 SU & ATS, 2-5 Over in 2018

Brisbane are 0-7 SU, 3-4 ATS, 2-5 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Bulldogs are 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

  • Bulldogs are 2-4 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium against interstate sides since 2017

  • Brisbane are 2-5 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 matches at Etihad Stadium

  • Brisbane have scored over 75 points in their last 7 matches at Etihad Stadium

  • Bulldogs are 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS against Brisbane since 2015

    • 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS at Etihad Stadium

  • Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between the two sides

    • Lowest scoring game was 182 points

Comment: There have been a lot of goals when these two sides have played each other in recent years, so 170.5 seems pretty low.

Recommended Bet: 1.5u Over 170.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Fremantle $1.35 v St Kilda $3.80 – Optus Stadium

Saturday Night, Line -21.5, Total 161.5

Fremantle are 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, 1-6 Over in 2018

St Kilda are 1-5-1 SU, 2-5 ATS, 1-6 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Fremantle are 2-1 SU & ATS against St Kilda since 2015

  • St Kilda are 3-17 SU, 6-14 ATS outside of Melbourne under Alan Richardson

  • St Kilda are 1-3 SU & ATS in Perth under Alan Richardson

  • Fremantle are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS at Optus Stadium

  • St Kilda have scored o10.5 behinds in all matches this season

Comments: St Kilda have really, really poor this season, and I don’t know how anybody could confidently back them, especially with them getting nervous in front of goals. Fremantle have adjusted to their new home very well, and I expect them to get the job done.

Recommended Bets:

  • 1u Fremantle -21.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)

  • 1.5u St Kilda o10.5 behinds @ $2.20 (Crownbet)

 

 

 

 

North Melbourne $4.15 v Richmond $1.26 – Etihad Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line +25.5, Total 172.5

North Melbourne are 4-3 SU & ATS, 1-6 Over in 2018

Richmond are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-3 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • North Melbourne are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS against Richmond since 2015

  • North Melbourne are 2-1 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

  • Richmond are 6-4 SU & ATS in their last 10 matches at Etihad Stadium

Comments: I’m not getting a clear read from the trends as to who is going to win/cover in this game – if this game was at the MCG, I would be smashing the Richmond line of -25.5, but with this game being at Etihad Stadium, I’m not willing to touch the unknown.

For those who follow me regularly, would know that I (successfully) had Ben Cunnington to have over 24.5 disposals against Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium a few weeks ago, well I’m hoping that he repeats the dose against the Tigers, as now Cunnington has racked up over 25 possessions in 7 of his last 9 matches at Etihad Stadium.

Recommended Bet: 1.5u Ben Cunnington over 24.5 disposals @ $1.86 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

Collingwood $2.35 v Geelong $1.66 – MCG

Sunday Afternoon, Line +8.5, Total 173.5

Collingwood are 4-3 SU & ATS, 3-4 Over in 2018

Geelong are 4-3 SU & ATS, 2-5 ATS in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Collingwood are 3-3 SU & ATS against Geelong since 2014

    • Under is 6-0 in that span

  • Collingwood are 3-4-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 matches at the MCG

  • Collingwood are 3-8-1 SU, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 matches at the MCG as underdogs

  • Geelong are 13-9 SU, 7-15 ATS in their last 22 matches at the MCG

  • Under is 20-8 in Geelong matches at the MCG since 2014

Comment: It’s hard to split these two teams head to head, as they are both 3-3 SU & ATS when they come up against each other, but one thing that does stand out is the low scoring games these two have when up against one another. I expect that to continue.

Recommended Bet: 2u Under 173.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet/Bet365)

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