When you’ve written “i’m going all out on the underdogs this week” before the the round described as the one with the most shock results in AFL history you’d be forgiven for thinking we’d got the absolute crown jewels with our bets but alas we only actually backed West Coast and Richmond straight up so while we made a tidy profit it could have been better!
Round 8 kicks off with West Coast hosting the Western Bulldogs in Perth on Friday night and it was this corresponding fixture in the elimination final last year when the Dogs got up by 47 points that really made the neutral observer start thinking the Dogs could go all the way.
So far in 2017 both teams have got the job done without hugely impressing anyone along the way. We were on the Eagles last week when they beat Port in Adelaide but our bet on the Tigers got done by the Bulldogs in a close one after the Tigers led by 5 goals.
The angles that are often best in West Coast games at Domain are to back the Eagles at the line and the unders so it’s no surprise to see the line move from -11.5 to -15.5 and the total points line fall from 176.5 to 170.5.
West Coast games at Domain since 2014 have gone 8/15 over/under, 6/12 since 2015 and 3/6 since last year. Solid. Both teams are 3/4 in 2017. My number for this match is 160 so we’ll take the new line.
2 units under 170.5 at $1.88 with
A trend that may be worth following is that since 2015 Domain games at night have gone over in the opening quarter 8/2 but still went 4/6 to the under at full time. If the opening period goes over tonight i’ll be topping up on the under at the new line.
The Eagles are 14/2 straight up and 12/4 ATS at Domain since the start of last year and -11.5 was a good bet. Easy to say now I guess. Still, i think there’s a bit of juice left at -14.5 so we’ll take a unit at that line at $1.93 with . If you can’t get set there the -15.5 is OK.
Hawthorn are back in Tassie to play the Lions and the -44.5 line is of no interest.
I’ll be keeping a close watch on the weather radar as there is a big band of rain heading to Tassie and it’s just a question as to if it will have passed through by gameday.
Either way there’s not much downside to taking the plunge on the unders at the current line of 199.5 at $1.96 with for a unit.
St Kilda vs Carlton is too hard to call and the line is set just where i’d have it. I lean to the Blues at the plus but you’re taking a double punt on which team turns up for both sides.
There’s also a chance of rain in Sydney on Saturday and as always we’ll jump on the unders if it arrives. Both teams have strong trans with them for this match which cancel each other out in my opinion. GWS are 9/4 as favs ATS since 2015 while the Pies are 7/1 ATS as underdogs in the same time.
Essendon take on Geelong with the reputation of both sides having taken a bit of a hit in recent weeks. Again i’m going for the unders in a match where i have the line at 176 and we can get a unit at under 188.5 at $1.91 with
I can’t find a bet in the Crows vs Dees game although may regret not backing the Crows at the minus.
Over in the Land of the Rising (Gold Coast) Sun (s) the oping handicap line was -11.5 to Port Adelaide but since the stories have come out about cattle class travel and other possible travel issues for the Suns the line has gone out to 22.5. The match odds have moved from $2.85 to $3.50 for the Suns and this looks like an overreaction.
1 unit Gold Coast at $3.50 with
North are a usually a tenet bet at Etihad but i can see the Swans getting on a roll after finally getting off the mark in round 7 so we’ll leave that game alone.