Adelaide $1.19 v Western Bulldogs $5.75 – Adelaide Oval
Friday Night, Line -25.5, Total 168.5
Adelaide are 5-3 SU & ATS, 2-6 Over in 2018
Western Bulldogs are 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS, 3-5 Over in 2018
Adelaide are 2-2 SU & ATS in their last 4 matches against the Bulldogs since 2015
Over is 3-1
Adelaide are 23-6 SU, 21-8 ATS with true home advantage at Adelaide Oval under Don Pyke
Adelaide are 4-4 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval on Friday night matches under Don Pyke
Under is 7-1
Western Bulldogs are 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 away matches played interstate
Comments: Even without Sloane, Tex, Crouch (x2), McGovern and others, the Crows should have no problem beating a Bulldogs side that has only won once in their last 8 interstate matches, which was against the to-be wooden spooners in the Brisbane Lions last season. Rory Laird has only failed to rack up 30 or more disposals in 2018, so this bet is of extreme value I feel.
North Melbourne are 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS, 1-7 Over in 2018
GWS are 4-3-1 SU, 1-7 ATS, 2-6 Over in 2018
North Melbourne are 2-2 SU & ATS against GWS since 2014
0-2 SU & ATS in last 2
The away side is 4-0 SU & ATS in the last 4 meetings between the two teams
Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between the two teams
North Melbourne are 12-4 SU & ATS in Hobart since 2012
9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS as favourites
“Under” is 5-1 in the last 6 matches in Hobart
GWS are 1-4-1 SU, 0-6 ATS in their last 7 matches outside of NSW/ACT
“Under” is 7-1 in GWS’s last 8 matches outside of NSW/ACT
Comments: All of the head to head trends lean towards North Melbourne, but I believe they’re at very little to no value at this price. North Melbourne’s 2nd stingiest defence combined with GWS’s seemingly lack of ability to put up a lot of points away from home can only make me think that Under is the best play here.
Recommended Bet: 1.5u Under 165.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)
Gold Coast Suns $7.50 v Port Adelaide $1.13 – China
Saturday Afternoon, Line +42.5, Total 162.5
Gold Coast are 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS, 2-6 Over in 2018
Port Adelaide are 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, 3-5 Over in 2018
Port Adelaide are 8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS against Gold Coast since 2012
“Under” is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between the two teams
Port Adelaide won 110-38 in last year’s match in Shanghai
Comments: Due to the uniqueness of this game, there aren’t too many trends to go by in this one. The last 5 meetings between these two side have failed to go over 162.5 total points scored, and with this one being played in foreign conditions, I expect more of the same.
Recommended Bet: 1.5u Under 162.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Bet365)
Essendon $5 v Geelong $1.22 – MCG
Saturday Twilight, Line +32.5, Total 170.5
Essendon are 2-6 SU & ATS & Over in 2018
Geelong are 5-3 SU & ATS, 2-6 Over in 2018
Geelong are 6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS against Essendon since 2012
2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS at the MCG
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between the two sides
Under is 21-8 in Geelong matches at the MCG since 2014
Geelong are 14-9 SU, 8-15 ATS in their last 23 matches at the MCG
Essendon are 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS at the MCG since 2017
Essendon are 0-8, 41.43% in 3rd quarters in 2018 (their worst QTR)
Geelong are 6-2, 168.07 % in 3rd quarters in 2018 (their best QTR)
Comments: I don’t think Geelong will be troubled in this game, but I am not tempted to strip off 32.5 points at a ground they don’t generally overly excel at. One bet I do like is for Geelong to win the third quarter by over 6.5 points, especially since Essendon are yet to win a 3rd quarter this season.
Collingwood are 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS against St Kilda since 2011
Collingwood are 4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2014
St Kilda are 5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS at Etihad Stadium against Victorian teams since 2017
St Kilda have scored over 10.5 behinds in all 8 of their matches this season
Comments: For those who follow me on Twitter, would’ve saw that I posted 3u on St Kilda to score o10.5 behinds – something that has happened in every St Kilda game this season. Apologies if you couldn’t get on at the price of $2. I suspect the lucky few who did manage to get on would’ve made Crownbet shift their odds drastically. For those who couldn’t get on, I still reckon o12.5 @ $2.62 (Crownbet) is still value, as St Kilda have managed that in 5 of their 8 games this season so far. But, you better be quick!
Recommended Bet (Posted on Monday): 3u St Kilda o10.5 behinds @ $2 (Crownbet)
Unofficial Recommended Bet: St Kilda o12.5 behinds @ $2.62 (Crownbet)
Sydney $1.20 v Fremantle $5.40 – SCG
Saturday Night, Line -33.5, Total 159.5
Sydney are 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, 3-5 Over in 2018
Fremantle are 4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS, 1-7 Over in 2018
Sydney are 2-2 SU & ATS in their last 4 matches against Fremantle
The home team is 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between the 2 sides
Sydney are 4-0-1 SU, 4-1 ATS against Fremantle at home since 2012
Fremantle are 1-9 SU, 4-6 ATS in their last 10 interstate matches
Sydney are 1-3 SU & ATS at home in 2018
Comments: Fremantle are the best team against the spread/line in 2018, but that is mainly due to their 5-0 ATS record at Optus Oval. They have been pretty ordinary on the road and have shown that they cannot be trusted outside of their new stadium. Sydney, on the other hand, have the opposite problem as they can win on the road, but not at home. Sydney should win, but by how much? I don’t know, so I’m completely staying away from this one.
Sydney have not scored over 23 points in any of their 4 first quarters at home this season.
Unofficial Recommended Bet: Sydney Under 25.5 Team Points – Q1 @ $1.67 (Crownbet)
Carlton $6 v Melbourne $1.16 – MCG
Sunday Afternoon, Line +35.5, Total 171.5
Carlton are 1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS, 2-6 Over in 2018
Melbourne are 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 Over in 2018
Carlton are 2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 matches against Melbourne
Carlton are 10-12-1 SU, 20-3 ATS in their last 23 day/twilight matches at the MCG since 2014
Melbourne are 7-9 SU, 3-13 ATS at the MCG under Simon Goodwin
Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two sides
Carlton ATS in day matches at the MCG saluted again last week, and this week they come up against a Melbourne side that seems to play well everywhere except for at their home ground. Melbourne have been flying under the radar a little bit in the last few weeks and smashing Carlton right from the get go, this week, will show a lot of maturity and growth in the side, but how many times have Melbourne let us down? I don’t expect this to be a walk in the park. I may regret being a little bit greedy here, but I feel that if Carlton are to keep it under 6 goals, they have to keep this game low scoring as I just don’t see Carlton trying to win in a shootout against Melbourne.
Side note: If you think Melbourne will cover the line, I wouldn’t discourage doubling with over 171.5 points for extra value.
Brisbane are 0-8 SU, 3-5 ATS against Hawthorn since 2010
All losses have been by over 6 goals
Brisbane are 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS at the Gabba in 2017
Hawthorn are 3-2 SU & ATS in their last 5 away interstate matches
Comments: Long story short, I am very surprised Hawthorn are only a 13.5 favourite. Considering that their smallest winning margin against the Lions since 2010 is 38 points, I think this is a little bit disrespectful.
The last 4 matches between the two sides has been split 2-2 SU & ATS since 2014
West Coast are 4-1 SU & ATS at Optus Stadium
Richmond are 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS interstate since 2017
Comments: What a game this is shaping up to be! If I had a gun to my head and I had to decide the winner, I think I would choose the reigning premiers in Richmond, but I do not say it with enough confidence to be wanting to put money on it. There are games that are I know are going to be very boring to watch, and will need to put on a wager just to be slightly interested in the game; this game isn’t one of them. No bet.
Unofficial Recommended Bet: Either Team Under 15.5 Points @ 2.55 (UBet)