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AFL: Round 9
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St Kilda and Sydney is the first match up on Saturday and i’m leaving it well alone. The Saints are one of a number of utterly unpredictable teams this season – think Pies/Dees/North/Hawks – and the Swans have seemingly only just woken up . It should be an informative match with regards to possible finals pretensions but not one for a bet.

 

 

GWS welcome Richmond to Spotless Stadium on Saturday afternoon and I think there’s enough value in the Tigers odds of $4.20 with  ($4.50 with WillHillUk) to get involved when you consider that, in 2016,  the Giants lost to the Pies at $1.13, Eagles at $1.29 and Dogs at $1.43 – all at Spotless – and only just scraped past the Pies again last week.

 

 

The Crows will be hurting after back to back losses to North and then the Demons but they’ll find no easier way to get back on track than facing a Lions side that have won a grand total of eight of their last 36 matches at the Gabba and are 4/10 ATS at home since the start of last term and 1/6 as 40+ point underdogs. 

1 unit Crows -48.5 at $1.91 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

 

The Hawks have won the last nine against the Pies with Collingwood’s last win in the 2011 Prelim Final but this looks too hard and is therefore not a betting proposition.

 

 

West Coast travel to Etihad to play the Bombers on Sunday and they’ve lost twice in 2017, both times at the MCG, and  i think the 129 metre width of oval at Docklands is more to their liking than the 141 metres of the MCG. Domain is 122. People talk about the Eagles’ supposedly poor form on the road but it’s more their form at the MCG than anything else that’s a worry.

The Bombers have impressed at times so far this term but the Eagles should have too much for them and the 2 goal handicap should not be enough for them to cover.

1 unit West Coast -11.5 at $2.0 with 

 

 

Melbourne vs North. One word: toohard.

 

 

Freo broke the hearts of Tigers fans (again) with the last kick of the match in round 8 to continue their mini resurgence while the Blues were creditable in defeat to the Saints. The line of 2.5 goals looks about right to me but I’m not sure the weather forecast is. The total points line of 146.5 is all about the forecast rain but i’m not so sure it will be there at game time. We’ll see and take a chance on the overs and look to get out should it be raining come 4pm on Sunday.

1 point over 146.5 at $1.91 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

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