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AFL: Round Five Betting Preview
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by @thetrendbettor

 

 

 

St Kilda $3.80 v GWS Giants $1.32 – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line +22.5, Total 180.5

Saints are 1-3 SU & ATS, 0-4 Over in 2018

GWS are 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • GWS are 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 away matches

  • GWS are 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2016

  • St Kilda are 7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS at Etihad Stadium against interstate sides since 2016

  • Saints are 9-9 SU, 10-8 ATS at Etihad Stadium as underdogs since 2016

  • St Kilda are 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS in their last 4 matches against GWS

Comments: Due to the fact that I don’t like GWS away from home, but I have also black listed St Kilda after their horrific loss against North Melbourne on Good Friday, I’m staying away from this game.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: GWS 1-39 @ $2.14 (Ladbrokes)

 

 

 

 

 

Carlton $5.25 v West Coast Eagles $1.19 – MCG

Saturday Twilight, Line +33.5, Total 177.5

Carlton are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 Over in 2018

West Coast are 3-1 SU & ATS & Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Carlton are 9-11-1 SU, 18-3 ATS in their last 21 day/twilight matches at the MCG since 2014

  • West Coast are 3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS in their last 3 matches against Carlton

  • West Coast are 4-10 SU, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 matches in Victoria

    • 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS at the MCG

  • Carlton are 4-3 SU, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 matches at the MCG against interstate teams, dating back to 2010

Comments: Based on the stats and trends alone, Carlton ATS should be a maximum play of 3 units, but it’s hard to load up on arguably the worst team in the league no matter what the line is. With that being said, the trends are simply too hard to ignore. The Blues play the MCG very well (during the day anyway), and the Eagles’s woes at the MCG are well documented. This one could be closer than what people suspect.

Recommended Bet: 2u Carlton +33.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

Port Adelaide $1.55 v Geelong $2.60 – Adelaide Oval

Saturday Night, Line 12.5, Total 179.5

 

Port are 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS & Over

Geelong are 2-2 SU & ATS & Over

Key Trends:

  • Port are 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS in their last 13 matches at Adelaide Oval against interstate sides

  • Under is 24-4 in Port Adelaide night matches at Adelaide Oval since 2011

  • Geelong are 6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS in their last 7 matches against Port Adelaide

    • 2-1 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval

  • Geelong are 3-3 SU & ATS at the Adelaide Oval

    • Under is 5-1

  • Under is 8-1 in matches between these two sides since 2011

  • Geelong are 1-5-1 SU, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 interstate matches

Comments: “Under” in night matches at the Adelaide Oval is one of the safest bets you can bet blindly, especially with Port Adelaide featuring. I’m deciding to load up in this one due to the fact that Under has hit in 24 of 28 (85.7%) Port Adelaide night matches at Adelaide Oval. Under is also 8-1 in the last 9 matches between these two matches, making this the strong play of the year to date.

Recommended Bet: 3u Under 179.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.88 (Crownbet)

 

 

 

 

 

Fremantle $1.62 v Western Bulldogs $2.45 – Optus Stadium

Saturday Night, Line -10.5, Total 163.5. Showers, possible thunderstorm

Dockers are 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 Over

Bulldogs are 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS & Over

Key Trends:

  • Fremantle are 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 matches in Perth as favourites

  • Western Bulldogs are 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 away matches played interstate

  • Under is 12-3 in the last 15 Western Bulldogs matches played interstate

  • Fremantle are 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS against the Western Bulldogs since 2012

Comments: Like the Adelaide Oval, Perth has been very kind to “Under” backers over the years in night matches. But the new stadium hasn’t been so kind with the “Under” hitting just twice from the 5 total games at Optus Stadium. The stats lean towards the Dockers ATS here, but a combination of not knowing which Fremantle is going to rock up and the expected 10mm-20mm downpour that is expected on Saturday evening has be a little hesitant. 10-20mm of rain can have quite an effect on a game of footy, so I’m leaning towards the Under here.

Recommended Bet: 2u Under 163.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

North Melbourne $2.75 v Hawthorn $1.52 – Etihad Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line +13.5, Total 189.5

North are 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 Over in 2018

Hawks are 3-1 SU & ATS, 2-2 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • North are 2-16 SU, 8-10 ATS in their last 18 matches as underdogs at Etihad Stadium

  • Hawthorn are 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2015

  • Hawthorn are 8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS against North Melbourne since 2011

    • 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS in at Etihad Stadium

 

Comments: I think North Melbourne have surprised just about every body, as I don’t think too many people would’ve predicted that they would be sitting 7th on the ladder coming into round 5. I get the feeling that a lot of punters will be backing North Melbourne’s line of 13.5, and I don’t necessarily blame them, but 13.5 points isn’t exactly a lot of points to be giving to a Hawthorn side that currently looks like a top 4 side. I’m not confident in backing either line in this case, but Hawthorn really should be beating this young North Melbourne outfit. $1.52 is definitely value. Take it

Recommended Bet: 2u Hawthorn win @ $1.52 (Ladbrokes)

 

 

 

 

 

Brisbane Lions $1.80 v Gold Coast Suns $2.15 – Gabba

Sunday Twilight, Line -4.5, Total 175.5

Lions are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS & Over in 2018

Suns are 2-2 SU & ATS, 1-3 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Brisbane are 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS in their last 6 matches against Gold Coast

    • 2-1 SU & ATS at the Gabba

  • Over is 6-1 in the last 7 Q-Clashes

  • Brisbane are 2-6 SU & ATS as favourites since 2014

Comments: There are very little variables to look out for when local derbies (like the Q-Clash) occur for obvious reasons. The last 6 head to head matches have been split 3-3 SU, with Brisbane having the slight edge over the Suns. When I anticipated what the line would be, I had very little doubt in my mind that the Suns would be favourites in this match. As I am wrong, I believe there is definitely value in the Suns. I cannot find trends to back me up and since I am solely relying on the eye test, this will be a smaller play. In my eyes, the Suns play a tougher brand of footy under Stuart Dew, and I believe it will be too much for the young Lions, especially in the wet conditions that are expected.

Recommended Bet: 1u Gold Coast win @ $2.15 (Ladbrokes)

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