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AFL Semi Final: Fremantle v Port Adelaide
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By Tom Sermani @tom_sermani

 

Fremantle v Port Adelaide

 

Odds/Lines:

 

Fremantle: $1.65 -7.5

Port Adelaide: $2.4 +9.5

Points Total Line: 167.5

 

Current form:

Fremantle: Won three of last five and seven of last ten matches. 

Port Adelaide: Won three of last five and four of last ten matches. 

 

 

Team News:

Fremantle: Ballantyne is out, replaced by Suban. 

Port Adelaide: No changes. 

 

 

Key Players:

 

Fremantle:

 

Ryan Crowley

Screenshot 2014-09-12 09.42.45

The importance of Ryan Crowley to this Freo team shouldn’t be underestimated and his role becomes even more important in finals matches when, as a tagger, he  creates space for his teammates in the battle between some of the best midfielders in the competition. He will probably go to Travis Boak but I wouldn’t be hugely surprised if he runs with Robbie Gray instead. 

 

Alex Silvagni 

Screenshot 2014-09-05 11.37.06

Alex Silvagni did a solid enough job on Buddy Franklin last week in just his seventh game of the season and 46th of his career. Franklin kicked three goals and was kept quiet for long periods of the game and Ross Lyon will be reasonably happy if Silvagni can limit either Jay Schultz or Justin Westhoff to a similar output on Saturday. 

 

 

 

Port Adelaide:

Alipate Carlile

 Screenshot 2014-09-12 14.48.42

Carlile is one of the unsung heroes of the Port Adelaide Power but his job on Matthew Pavlich is one of the key match-ups in this fixture. He kept the Freo skipper to two goals in their round 23 match and Lance Franklin to the same scoreboard output in round 20. 

Chad Wingard

Screenshot 2014-09-12 15.00.14

Chad Wingard was a revelation last season and, although he’s had a fair season, he has not made the impact he did in 2013 this time around. He has averaged 16.3 disposals this year compared to 21.3 last. 

Wingard needs to step his game up if Port are to continue further into the finals. 

 

 

Last 10 meetings between the teams:

Fremantle have won eight of the last ten matches between the two sides including most recently in round 23 by 105-97.

 

 

Home Advantage:

Fremantle just always seem to get the job done at Patersons Stadium. They hold an 11 and 1 record there in 2014, which includes wins by 7, 5 and 8 points in their last five games there. 

The 8 point victory against the Power in round 23 was a good example of how expert they have become at getting over the line at home. In that match Port had 55 inside 50’s to Freo’s 41 and 27 scoring shots to their 25 yet still the Dockers managed to get up. Port led by a single point at half time.  

Port are 10/3 at Adelaide Oval and 5/5 away from their home ground. 

 

 

 

Verdict:

Recency bias means that Port may have been slightly over-rated after their demolition of the Tigers last week and the line of 8.5 points is on the tight side. I’m tempted by the either team to win by 15.5 points or less market as this match just has to be a close one but I have enough faith in the Dockers to get across the line to go with them in a close one.

 

Bet:

1 unit Fremantle Dockers by 1-20 points at $3.60 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10