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AFL: Semi Finals
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by @thetrendbettor

 

 

Hawthorn v Melbourne – MCG

Friday Night, Line +17.5, Total 166.5

Hawthorn are 15-8 SU, 14-9 ATS, 10-13 Over in 2018

Melbourne are 15-8 SU, 16-7 ATS, 12-11 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Hawthorn are 11-7 SU, 11-7 ATS in their last 18 games at the MCG

  • Melbourne are 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS at the MCG in 2018

  • The loser of qualifying finals (Hawthorn) are 12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS in Semi-Finals since 2010

    • 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS since 2014

  • Melbourne are 13-5 SU, 13-5 ATS as favourites in 2018

  • Hawthorn are 8-6-1 SU, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 matches as underdogs

  • Either team by under 24.5 points is 19-7 in the last 26 matches where Hawthorn are underdogs

  • Under is 16-5 in the last 21 night matches at the MCG

  • Under is 5-1 in Melbourne matches played at night in 2018

  • Hawthorn are 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS against Melbourne since 2014

  • Tom Mitchell has had 30+ disposals only once in his 3 matches against the Dees as a Hawk

 

Comments: Two plays here. Night matches at the MCG have seen the total points scored go “under” in 76% of the last 21, and 83% of Melbourne matches that have been played under lights in 2018. 166.5 seems like a high total, and a total that I would’ve probably expected if it were played during the day, especially considering the under went 4-0 last weekend.

The other play is mainly due to the fact that I am expecting Melbourne tagger James Harmes to go to Tom Mitchell. Not only has Harmes shown that he can shut down opposition stars like Josh Kelly (19 disposals), Luke Shuey (21), Joel Selwood (16 at GMHBA & 14 in 3 quarters last week), but he also makes these ball winners accountable as he has the ability to win it himself, forcing these players to do a little bit let less ball getting, and more defending.

Recommended Bets:

  • 1 unit – Under 166.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.88 (BetEasy)

  • 1 unit – Tom Mitchell Under 29.5 Disposals @ $3.50 (Bet365)

 

 

 

Collingwood v GWS Giants – MCG

Saturday Night, Line -10.5, 154.5 – Wet and Windy

Collingwood are 16-7 SU, 14-9 ATS, 11-12 Over in 2018

GWS Giants are 14-8-1 SU, 10-13 ATS, 9-14 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Collingwood are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS against GWS since 2014

    • 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS at the MCG

  • Collingwood are 8-6-1 SU, 8-7 ATS at the MCG against interstate sides since 2014

  • GWS are 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS as underdogs in away matches in 2018

  • GWS are 2-12 SU, 5-9 ATS at the MCG

    • 4 of the last 6 matches have been decided by under 19.5 points or less

  • Under is 9-2 in the last 11 GWS matches at the MCG

  • Under is 16-5 in the last 21 night matches at the MCG (Prior to this week)

  • Under is 10-4 in Collingwood night matches since 2015

 

Comments: When I look at these trends, I can only come to one of either two conclusions – Fade GWS SU/ATS or play the Under Total Points Scored. I was fairly impressed by GWS last week, and even without Josh Kelly, I can’t write them off in this one. I’ll go with the stronger trend of the Under, especially at a wet and windy MCG under lights.

Recommended Bet: 2 units – Under 154.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet / Bet365)

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