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AFL: St Kilda v Fremantle - Preview and Tips
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By Tom Sermani @tom_sermani

St Kilda welcome the Dockers to Etihad Stadium on Saturday afternoon and they have a very good record against them, winning 8 of the previous 10 meetings, including by 71 points in round 23 of 2013 when Freo rested most of the best 22 before their finals campaign which saw them reach the Grand Final. 

 

St Kilda (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 3/13 (20/37)

ATS: 6/10 (27/33)

Twilight S/U: 0/3

Twilight ATS: 1/3 (4/11)

Etihad S/U:3/7

Etihad ATS: 4/6 (17/16)

7 day + break S/U: 2/8

7 day + break ATS: 3/7 (15/23)

30.5+ Point Underdog: 4/7 (7/9)

 

Over/Under

O/U: 7/9 (29/31)

Etihad: 4/6 (16/17

7 day + break: 4/6 (19/19)

Twilight: 2/1 (8/6)

 

Notable Trends:

St Kilda have a poor record at the line in twilight games since 2012, covering the line just 4 times in 15 attempts. They are 3/7 ATS off a 7+ day break in 2014 and are 4/7 in the same period as 30.5+ point underdogs. 

 

 

 

Fremantle (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 12/4 (42/17)

ATS: 10/6 (39/26)

Twilight S/U: 2/1

Twilight ATS: 2/1 (5/4)

Etihad S/U:2/0

Etihad ATS: 2/0 (7/1)

6 day or less break S/U: 1/4 

6 day or less break ATS: 0/5 (6/12)

30.5+ Point Favourite: 5/0 (13/4)

 

Over/Under

O/U: 4/12 (22/43)

Etihad: 0/2 (5/3)

6 day or less break: 1/4 (6/12)

Twilight: 1/2 (4/5)

 

Notable Trends:

Fremantle have a strong overall ATS record in 2014 at 10/6. They are 5/0 ATS as 30.5+ point favourites in 2014 and 7/1 at the venue ATS since 2012. They have a poor record ATS off a short break at 0/5 this year. 

They are a very solid unders team at 4/12.

 

 

Verdict and Tips: 

I like Freo at the line with the worry being their record off a short break as they are 0/5 in 2014. Looking at those games, however, shows the first four ATS losses were in rounds 3, 5, 6 and 8 when Freo were not really firing as they are now and the teams they faced were Hawthorn, Sydney, North and Port. 

We have to hope that Ross Lyon doesn’t pull any stunts as far as his team selection goes but if there are several late outs and you can get out of the bet you should think about doing so. 

 

 

Bet:

1 point Fremantle -56.5 at $1.93 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

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