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AFL: Swans v Bombers - Stats, Trends & Tips
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By Tom Sermani

 

The Swans welcome the in-form Bombers to the SCG on Friday night after their 12 match winning streak was broken by the Hawks a week ago. 

 

Sydney (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 13/4 (44/15/1)

ATS: 9/8 (37/30)

Night: 8/2 

Night ATS: 5/5 (13/16)

SCG S/U: 5/1

SCG ATS: 3/3 

6 day or less break: 6/0

6 day or less break ATS: 4/2 (9/10)

Fav 15-30 points: 2/1

Fav 15-30 points ATS: 1/2 (8/6)

Q1 S/U: 13/4

1H S/U: 14/3

 

 

Over/Under

O/U: 7/10 (30/37)

SCG: 2/4 (14/20 inc ANZ)

6 day or less break: 3/3 (8/11)

Night: 4/6 (9/20)

1Q: 5/12

1H: 5/12

 

Points

Average scored: 96.5

Average conceded: 69.5

Average Total: 166

Average Points Line: 175

Average Scored at SCG: 102.3

Average Conceded at SCG: 68.2

Average Total at SCG: 170.5

Average Points Line at SCG: 175.2

 

Notable Trends:

No strong trends at the line. The Swans are a solid 14/20 to the under since 2012 at home and a strong 9/20 at night. They are 5/12 to the under in opening quarters and first halves in 2014. 

 

 

 

Essendon (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 10/7 (35/26)

ATS: 8/9 (29/32)

Night: 7/4

Night ATS: 7/4 (19/16)  

Interstate S/U: 3/1

Interstate ATS: 1/3 (7/7)

7 day + break: 9/3

7 day + break ATS: 6/6 (23/22)

Underdog: 3/1

Underdogs ATS: 4/0 (12/9)

Q1 S/U: 12/5

1H S/U: 11/6

 

 Over/Under

O/U: 5/12 (24/37)

Interstate: 1/3 (7/7)

7 day + break: 3/9 (19/26)

Night: 3/8 (12/23)

1Q: 5/12

1H: 4/13

 

Points

Average scored:83.5

Average conceded: 76

Average Total: 159.5

Average Points Line: 178.3

 

Notable Trends:

The Bombers are 7/4 ATS in night games this season and have several strong trends towards the under including 3/9 off a long break in 2014 and 5/12 in 1Q and 4/13 in 1H.

 

 

 

Verdict and Tips:

I want to tip Essendon to win the match using Sportsbet’s money back offer but they are close to worst price so we’ll wait and see if they drift closer to the match. EDIT – Sportsbet are now $4.65 from $4.15. Bet added below. 

I do like the unders in all sorts of ways here so we’ll split the stakes and hope for 2 out of 3 winning tips, if not all 3.

 

 

 

1/2 unit under 174.5 points at $1.83 with Screenshot 2014-07-03 11.06.45

1/2 unit under 84.5 first half points at $1.88 with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13

1/2 unit under 41.5 first quarter points at $1.86 with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13

1/2 unit Essendon at $4.65 with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13 (money back if beaten by 20 points or less, up to $100)

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