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AFL: Sydney v Hawthorn
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Hawthorn go to ANZ Stadium to meet the Swans on Friday night with Sam Mitchell and Brian Lake ruled out for the reigning Premiers and doubts over Buddy Franklin for the Swans. It would be a shame if Buddy did not line up against his old side but with Kurt Tippett available again it might not be the worst thing in the world for the Swans if Buddy does miss out. 


Sydney had a wobbly start to 2014 but have won their last 3 matches against Freo, Melbourne and Brisbane. Hawthorn have been dominant so far this year, losing just once against Geelong and winning by 48, 4, 58, 99, 66 and 145 points in their victories. 


Sydney have been a good team to back to go under the total points spread this season with a 1/6 record, 0/4 in night games and 0/4 at home but before we start getting excited about a bet on the unders it should be noted that Hawthorn are 5/2 going ‘over’ in 2014 and 2/0 when travelling interstate. 


Since the start of 2012 Sydney are 24/33 and Hawthorn 34/23 so they are following a familiar pattern so far this year. 


Hawthorn have the superior record against the spread to Sydney with a 31/26 record compared to Sydney’s 21/6.

In 2014 Hawthorn are 5/2 and 2/0 interstate while Sydney are 3/4 and 1/3 at ‘home’. 

Hawthorn are 15.5 point favourites and i think they are good value at that, against any team.


Hawthorn -15.5 points at $1.97 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18


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