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AFL: Sydney v Richmond
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By Tom Sermani @tom_sermani

 

Sydney v Richmond

 

The Tigers have won eight on the bounce to keep their finals hopes alive going into the final home and away round of the season. On Saturday they face the ultimate test with an interstate trip to take on the in-form Swans to finally decide their fate.

The Swans continue to impress with Buddy Franklin in tremendous nick and now 9 goals clear in the Coleman Medal race. 

As always with games at this late stage of the season there is a chance of some late withdrawals from the team guaranteed a top two finish. 

 

 

 

Sydney (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 17/4 

ATS: 12/9 (40/31)

Twilight: 1/1

Twilight ATS: 1/1 (4/5)

ANZ S/U: 1/1 

ANZ ATS: 1/1

6 day or less break: 7/0

6 day or less break ATS: 4/3 (9/11)

Fav 15-29 points: 8/2

Fav 15-29 points ATS: 5/5

Q1 S/U: 16/5

1H S/U: 18/3

 

Over/Under

O/U: 9/12 (32/39)

ANZ: 1/1

6 day or less break: 3/4 (8/12)

Twilight: 0/2 (3/6)

1Q: 6/15

1H: 6/15 

 

Points

Average scored: 98.1

Average conceded: 67.6

Average Total: 165.8

Average Points Line: 174.6

 

Notable Trends:

The Swans are 6/15 over/under in opening quarters and opening halves in 2014. 

 

 

 

 

Richmond (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 11/10

ATS: 10/11 (34/32)

Twilight: 2/0

Twilight ATS: 0/2 (3/4)

Interstate S/U: 4/1

Interstate ATS: 3/2 (9/8)

6 day or less break: 2/4 

6 day or less break ATS: 4/2 (10/7)

Underdog 15-29 points: 1/4

Underdog 15-29 points ATS: 4/1

Q1 S/U: 13/8

1H S/U: 14/7

 

Over/Under

O/U: 8/13 (25/41)

Interstate: 1/4 (4/13)

6 day or less break: 2/4 (4/13)

Twilight: 0/2 (0/7)

1Q: 9/12

1H: 8/13

 

Points

Average scored: 86.6

Average conceded: 81.9

Average Total: 168.5

Average Points Line: 177.4 

 

Notable Trends:

Richmond have been a strong unders team under these conditions going 0/7 in twilight games since 2012, 4/13 interstate and 4/13 off a 6 day or less break. 

 

 

Verdict and Bets:

The trends point to unders here but with the line set at 171.5 there’s not too much room to wriggle there so we’ll look at the 1st quarter where Sydney are 6/15 to the under and Richmond are 9/12. 

Sydney have restricted their opponents to an average of just 12.4 points 1st quarter points and the line for Richmond 1Q points is 18.5. Sydney’s opponent has scored 15 or fewer points in 17 of 21 matches in 2012 and while the Tigers have averaged 21.4 themselves that drops to 18.5 in the 12 games they started as underdogs. 

 

1 unit under 18.5 Richmond 1st quarter points at $1.88 with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13

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