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AFL: Tips for Round 11
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By @OddyAFL

 

PORT ADELAIDE vs GEELONG

Screenshot 2015-06-12 08.33.49

After a more than shaky start Port Adelaide have now won their last two matches by a combined total of 99 points. They ‘only’ beat Melbourne and the Bulldogs but they looked like a team about to kick into top gear, and we know how good they are at their best.

Geelong are inconsistent. The smallest winning margin in their last five matches is 41 points and they have won three and lost two. That the two wins were against the Blues and Bombers suggests we should not put too much faith in the form lines there but perhaps a little more in their heavy defeats to West Coast and Sydney.

Port have gone well ATS since the start of 2014 as home favourites (11/6) and also at night (8/3) whereas the Cats are 1/7 interstate in the same time period.

The numbers also point to the under with Port matches going under the points total 6/13 at Adelaide Oval and 1/6 at night. The Cats are 4/9 to the under in night matches since 2014.

1 unit Port adelaide -13.5 at $1.99 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

1 unit under 175.5 at $1.91 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

Ladbrokes are offering $2 on Port for $20 so take that too! 

 

 

 

 

WEST COAST vs ESSENDON

Screenshot 2015-06-12 08.46.10

I might be one of the few people still unconvinced by West Coast. Yes, they’ve started really well to sit 2nd in the ladder with a 7/2 record but you have to look at who they’ve beaten.

They beat the Blues and the Lions in rounds 2 and 4 between losses to Freo and the Bulldogs. They then beat an off colour Port by less than two goals and thrashed the Suns. The Saints were competitive against them for a long time – and lost Nick Riewoldt early to injury. They then beat Geelong and lost to North.

Essendon are a basket case. The players are in a peptide shaped hole of despair, BUT, they’ve dug in plenty of times over the last 2 years while this never-ending saga has rolled on to win matches when they’ve been written off.

West Coast could win by 10 goals but an Essendon win would also not surprise too greatly.

.5 units win Essendon at $6.19 with Screenshot 2015-01-29 20.29.37

 

 

 

 

 

NORTH MELBOURNE vs SYDNEY

Screenshot 2015-06-12 08.59.35

In simple terms I like opposing North Melbourne at the spread at night (5/12) and (2/7) at Etihad at night and supporting the Swans when interstate favourites (8/3).

1 unit Sydney -13.5 at $2.0 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

 

 

 

COLLINGWOOD vs GWS

Screenshot 2015-06-12 09.38.58

Neither teams’ ATS numbers give great cause for confidence in this match in what is a vital game for both sides with finals places on their minds. 

Collingwood’s extra experience at the MCG where they have won five of their last seven matches could be the difference here.

1 unit Collingwood -7.5 at $1.91 with Screenshot 2015-04-05 12.53.22 (UK version)

 

 

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