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AFL: West Coast vs St Kilda
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Our 2 point bet on Sydney +22.5 went down with Liam Picken’s final kick of the game last night when 10 minutes before it looked like we’d get the lot when the Swans hit the lead.

I can’t see many bets in the rest of the round although i was tempted by the Brisbane at the + with the Bombers a candidate to ‘bounce’. ‘Bouncing’ is something you see in horses that come off a long spell to a high standard of form, as Essendon did, in that in their next game their performance often drops considerably. The line is in to 15.5 however and that may not be enough.

The one match which stands out is West Coast vs St Kilda in the total and team points markets.

Firstly the total points line looks too high at 195.5 with West Coast matches’ adjusted figures at home since 2014 of 170 in the day, 161 at twilight (as is today’s game) and 164 at night.

Last year the Eagles games averaged 176 points at Domain Stadium. 

 

 

Back under 195.5 at $1.90 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

 

 

 

One reason I think the points total will go under, apart from the points i’ve outlined above, is I think St Kilda will struggle to score more than 70 points.

The average score for WCE’s opponents at Domain since 2014 is 68 (67 in twilight games) and seven of the 11 teams scored 69 or fewer points. 

St Kilda’s last five scores against the Eagles read: 29, 30, 78 (Etihad), 70 (Etihad) and 58.

Th Saints have scored an average of 66 points when playing interstate since 2014.

 

Back St Kilda to score fewer than 77.5 points at $1.90 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

 

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