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Bet Detective's Best Bet in League 2
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By Mark Phillips @betdetective

 

 

Portsmouth were expected to be dominant in this division – including by yours truly who backed them ante-post to win the division – but so far this has not materialised and they look underpriced to beat Mansfield on Saturday. 

PORTSMOUTH v MANSFIELD

Portsmouth

P11, W4, D4, L3

Home: P5, W3, D1, L1 

Form: P6, W1, D3, L2

 

  • Portsmouth have won once in their last six home and away matches
  • They have been outshot in four of their five home games this season, including by 19 shots to nine in their last home game, a 1-1 draw against Wycombe
  • They have had fewer shots on target in three of the five home games
  • Portsmouth have averaged 9.2 shots and 3.2 on target at home conceding 12.6 and 3.8

 

 

Mansfield

P11, W5, D0, L6 

Away: P5, W1, D0, L4 

Form: P6, W3, D0, L3

 

  • Mansfield are yet to draw a match, winning five and losing six of their 11 games so far
  • They have averaged 12.8 shots and 5 shots on target away from home, conceding 12.8 and 5.8
  • They have outshot their opponents in three of their five away games and also had more shots on target in three of the five
  • Mansfield have averaged 11.8 shots with 4.6 on target, conceding 12.8 and 4.2
  • In the 2-1 loss away to 2nd placed Wycombe on 13/9/14 they had 16 corners (conceded 2), the most of any team – home or away – in L2 this season. 

 

 

Verdict:

Portsmouth are priced on reputation and on what was expected of them pre-season. Mansfield have good performances in them and are overpriced here. 

 

1 unit Mansfield at $3.50 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

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