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@bparkprophecies' Picks for 16/10/16
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All selections to be settled at Pinnacle closing odds.

 

Saturday 15th October 2016
A hefty dozen bets today, many of which coincide with some from our very own BetDetective, so let’s hope for strength in numbers. (Some hopes.) A lot of them are really unfancied long shots, which always present a tricky call for us. It’s one thing to be sure that a team you’re backing is strong value at the price but that means less when it’s a weak side like Rotherham against a strong side like Norwich. But $9 suggests a fundamental misunderstanding of the Championship. Yes, there are a few teams with obscenely expensive squads (due to their failure to stay in the Premier league), and there is little to choose between the rest. Even those star-studded squads get humbled, however – if not humiliated, over a season. Rotherham were unlucky to lose at home to Newcastle recently, and that’s not the first time the over-fed Geordies have ridden their luck in this division. (They are bloody good when they’re on song though…)
It’s a similar scene in Leagues 1 and 2, though the differential in money and quality between teams is less. So quite how so many $5 shots and bigger are arrived at in those is hard to comprehend, and leads us into wide-eyed temptation. In fact, half our punts this week come at bigger than that price, two from each of our leagues. It’s a risky business, but you already know that. A few winners from these will see us alright:
CHAMPIONSHIP
Derby v LEEDS
It’s unbelievable that Leeds should be $5 for this. Derby appointed an old new manager this week: Steve McLaren, and since then Leeds’ price has drifted. I’d have shortened it. Take Leeds at
Norwich v ROTHERHAM
Agony over this one. $9 should not be on offer anywhere in this league. Rotherham aren’t THAT bad, and they’re better against good opposition; which Norwich are. Take the away side.
Wigan v BURTON
Strange that Burton should be as big as they are. Both were promoted last season, and have contended with their new opponents quite well between them, albeit with differing results. Any outcome is possible, so take $3.75 on the away team.
LEAGUE 1
AFC Wimbledon v SWINDON
Bolton v OLDHAM
Charlton v COVENTRY
Rochdale v BURY
Sheffield U v PORT VALE

LEAGUE 2
Carlisle v HARTLEPOOL
Doncaster v COLCHESTER
Notts Co v CREWE
Cheltenham v CRAWLEY
Fare well friends.
 

 

 

 

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