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Conference Premier: Weekend Analysis
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By Mark Phillips @betdetective

 

Conference Premier

 

All teams in the Conference have played five home and away games each and – unlike last season – I’ve managed to hold fire with bets using my ratings until now. 

So far i’ve identified bets in three games. There may be more to follow. Keep an eye on the @Oddy_Oddy_Oddy twitter account for updates. 

 

Aldershot v Lincoln

ALDERSHOT

P10, W3, D3, L3

Home: P5, W2, D1, L2

Last 6: W1, D2, L3

  • Aldershot have lost their last two games at home, including 3-1 to Braintree on Tuesday night. 
  • They have averaged 7.2 shots and 3.6 shots on target at home (conceding 7.8 and 4).
  • Four of their five home games have seen both teams score.
  • Three of the five games have gone over 2.5 goals. 
  • Since the start of last season 11 of 13 matches against ‘middle third’ teams have gone over 2.5 goals and 11 of 13 have seen both teams score. 

 

 

 

LINCOLN

P10, W4, D1, L5

Away: P5, W2, D0, L3

Last 6: W1, D0, L5

  • Lincoln have lost their last three games away from home, including 2-0 to Welling on Tuesday night. 
  • They have averaged 10.4 shots and 3.0 shots on target at home (conceding 13.8 and 6.6).
  • Four of their five home games have seen both teams score.
  • Four of the five games have gone over 2.5 goals. 
  • Since the start of last season 8 of 13 matches against ‘middle third’ teams have gone over 2.5 goals. and 8 of 13 have seen both teams score. 
  • Since the start of last season Lincoln have won six from 13 away games against middle third teams (5.4 units profit to level stakes). 

 

 

Verdict:

This should be an open game – Lincoln have hit double figure shots in four from five of their away games and have also allowed the same in four of the five. The trends for both teams to score and for +2.5 goals are strong while Lincoln also look overpriced for the win as both teams are relatively poor and are not in good form. 

 

Bets:

1 unit on both teams to score at $1.82 with Screenshot 2014-05-21 12.49.05

1 unit on over 2.5 goals at $1.96 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

0.5 units Lincoln to win at $3.82 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dartford v Forest Green

 

Dartford

P10, W2, D3, L5

Home: P5, W2, D2, L1

Last 6: W2, D1, L3

 

  • Dartford have won six of their last 20 home matches
  • They’ve won two of their last three at home
  • They have not scored before half time at home in their five matches
  • They have come from 0-1, 0-2 and 0-1 down in their last three home games to finish 2-1, 2-2 and 2-1.
  • Four of their five home games have gone over 2.5 goals and four from five have seen both teams score. 

 

 

Forest Green

P10, W4, D4, L2

Away: P5, W1, D3, L1

Last 6: W1, D3, L2

 

  • Forest Green have won six of their last 20 away games.
  • Four of their five away matches have gone under 2.5 goals.
  • Three of the five have seen both teams score. 

 

Verdict:

This match looks more evenly balanced than the odds would suggest, with Dartford drifting out to current odds of $4.44. 

An interesting possible positive for Dartford is that their manager, Tony Burman, said the following about the formation they played when beating Dover on Tuesday, coming from 1-0 down at HT to win 2-1.

“They were causing us some problems. We kept the same formation as we had on Saturday (3-5-2). I wanted to have a go at it, but I’m not sure it’s the right thing to do, so we changed back to 4-4-2 for the second half and I think it paid off.”

Dartford have been behind in their last three home games when starting with three at the back before turning things around when reverting to a more familiar 4-4-2. Hopefully they’ll start in that formation against Forest Green. 

 

Bet:

1 unit Dartford to win at $4.44 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

 

 

 

 

 

Welling v Gateshead

 

Welling

P10, W2, D3, L5

Home: P5, W2, D3, L0

Last 6: W2, D1, L3

 

  • Welling have won their last two home matches, against Braintree and Lincoln
  • They are undefeated at home with three draws preceding the two wins.
  • Four of their five home games have seen exactly two goals.
  • Four of the five have seen both teams score. 
  • They have scored in all of their home games. 
  • Last season  Welling won two from six against top six sides at home, including 2-0 against Gateshead.

 

 

Gateshead

 

P10, W6, D2, L2

Away: P5, W2, D2, L1

Last 6: W4, D1, L1

 

  • Both games that Gateshead have drawn away from home this season have seen a player for the home team sent off. 
  • Gateshead have scored in all ten of their matches this season.
  • They have failed to reach double figure shots in four of their five away matches. 

 

Verdict:

Gateshead deserve to be favourites but they are very short at a best priced $2.07.

Welling are undefeated at home and are worth chancing at their current odds of making it three wins on the trot at home.

 

Bet:

1 unit Welling at $3.80 with Screenshot 2014-05-07 13.02.14

 

 

 

 

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