Easter Saturday racing previewed by Brisburgh Phil.
Randwick R6#1 ZANBAGH has had a preparation timed to the minute for this and it is pretty common knowledge to most punters that Bar Plates went on her last start in the Vinery Stakes. That was a big warning for most to not back her and she ran pretty much accordingly beaten 6.5L. She ran very well though being no better than 3 wide the whole race with the winner Lucia Valentina cutting the corner to win very comfortably. The last time she and LV met there was only .3L between them so are we really to believe that she is a 6L inferior mare to her? I don’t think so. This mare has only really been put into a race once this preparation when she was ridden forward on a terribly leader biased track at Kembla where she won easily. She hasn’t looked like winning the other 3 but all defeats were full of merit. No surprise today the bar plates come off and she has drawn a lot better than last time and is on a drier surface which should suit. She is very hard to beat today and anything $4.50 or over is acceptable to me. WIN ONLY
I have a lot of time for the Kiwi filly Rising Romance who has been pretty unlucky her past 3 starts off very ordinary rides. She sprinted like a gazelle at the end of 2400m in the Derby over there so she has to be respected. She did have a foot issue and probably wasn’t suited off an extended break before the Vinery. Her run there wasn’t far inferior to Zanbagh and note that Hoof Pads come off here. A win wouldn’t surprise but it is hard for these NZ 3yos to come off an Oaks/Derby campaign over there and win the Autumn Classics in Sydney. I will be saving on her and she does have a victory over LV in NZ so the 6L beaten margin last start doesn’t add up either.
Randwick R7#4 THE OFFER is very hard to tip against here off a resounding win last start and being only 1kg over the minimum here. Formerly trained by Aiden O’Brien in Ireland, he is another horse to have made his mark in this country at the top level after being Gelded. He has won 3 of his 7 starts here since, and has won all 3 above 2000m. Not completely sure what a drying track means for him given those 3 wins have been on Heavy 9 & 10 surfaces but he has won pretty easily in Ireland on a dry track at 2600m. Gai has him ‘in the zone’ at the moment and gee it’s hard not to see him going very close today. He has drifted in the market a little but looks pretty much a $3 chance to me. $3.20 available in most markets at present.
Randwick R8#11 ROYAL DESCENT is a little bit over the odds I think at $9 on Unitab. She absolutely loves this track with 2 wins and 3 placings from 5 starts and the furthest she has been beaten in all of those starts is 0.6L. Had she drawn better last week she probably would have won the Doncaster, and the thing I like about her the most today is that she backs up off a 7 day break. That was the case before she won the Oaks by an incredible 10L and although that was a very Heavy track she should still be suited today on a track that should end up in the Slow range. Quite a few of these are racing beyond their best distance and a couple of others are stepping back in distance. She rising to a distance which is more suitable and hasn’t peaked yet. Today could be the day and she looks a very nice EACH WAY bet.
Carlton House might be the danger. He should get his own way in front as he did in the Ranvet and importantly stays at the same distance here. In fact he is the only horse in the race that isn’t going up or back in distance. Owned by the Queen in a race named after the Queen there will have been no stone left unturned by Gai Waterhouse in a quest to have him peaking today. The drier the track the better I would say and he has to be saved on at a value price of $6 on Sportsbet.