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English Football League: @bparkprophecies Value Picks
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By @bparkprophecies

Once more unto the breach dear friends, once more. Only now we’re not even armed with any match stats; just a load of ill-formed opinions from journalists, fans, and pundits. The good news is, you won’t be getting any of that here. With the third Test between England and Pakistan hanging in the balance, i for one am not ready for all this soccer lark. The sun is shining in Pomiland for goodness sake. It’s just not cricket. 

 

For all this, a first glance at the fixtures and my wallet started twitching all on its own. Loads of match-ups for this first round of games catch the eye. Big name clubs are all over-priced (eg Nottingham Forest), especially those up against duff-named opponents (er Nottingham Forest). That angle is at least commensurate with our policy of backing value, and there are a few like them throughout the leagues, which we’re on. 

 

 Prices are also skewed for teams just promoted or relegated to a league. Fair enough in the case of the Championship where those who failed in the Premier receive obscene parachute payments which allow them to buy all the best players. Newcastle have done this to a ridiculous degree. Last night they went down one nil at unfancied Fulham to give us our first laugh of the season. 

 

No wonder i can’t be bothered to keep up with all the player transfers – even humble Norwich pulled a snide last-ditch gazumping for Alex Pritchard from under the noses of Brighton and Hove Albion this week. The Championship is no place for the poor and it gets harder and harder each season as Premier league money floods the coffers of a few more who failed in it. What chance for the likes of Wigan, Barnsley, and Burton then, entering the league on the back of success instead? It will be hard for all of them. But really, are they as disadvantaged now, when no team has established itself as a unit as they will be later when everybody has had a good look at each other? Perhaps not. Nottingham Forest v Burton Albion does look like an amusing cup draw on paper, but is much tighter to call than that at this moment.

 

We’re not interested in who might win the league and who might go down. That’s not really our business in our line of punting. We’re looking at the games in front of us, a snapshot every week. Decide what your unit stake is for the season and stick with it. 2% of your total pot should keep you safe – and go something like half a full stake on these below – purely because there are so many of them and a ball hasn’t been kicked yet. All of the following aways look over-priced:

All bets are on the away team

CHAMP

Birmingham 

Cardiff  $3.33

Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

CHAMP

Bristol C

Wigan  $3.61 

Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

CHAMP

Ipswich

Barnsley $3.94

Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

CHAMP

Derby

Brighton & HA $3.85

Screenshot 2014-05-21 12.49.05

CHAMP

Nottingham Forest

Burton $4.41 

Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

CHAMP

Huddersfield 

Brentford $3.60

Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

CHAMP

Reading

Preston NE $3.50

Screenshot 2015-02-28 15.16.54

League 1

Southend

Gillingham $3.20 

Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

League 1

Walsall

AFC Wimbledon $3.76

Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

League 1

Scunthorpe 

Bristol R $4.11 

Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

League 1

Oxford

Chesterfield $4.0

Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13

League 2

Cambridge 

Barnet $5.0

Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

League 2

Plymouth 

Luton $3.30 

Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

League 2

Grimsby

Morecambe $4.47

Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

League 1

Northampton 

Fleetwood $3.56

Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

League 2

Blackpool

Exeter $3.29 

Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

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