I can tell it’s still early in the season because as one round of Football League matches ends I just can’t wait to crunch the numbers for the next. This enthusiasm slowly ebbs away as the season goes on and is more and more determined on how my P&L is looking.
Updating the P&L spreadsheet, done eagerly on a Monday morning after a winning round, is usually left until the following Friday after a losing one.
Anyway…i’ve spent the last five hours with my head in an Excel rabbit hole and thus have a few great looking bets for the weekend.
Swindon vs Bolton
The early $3.40 about the home team has, predictably, been snapped up by the shrewder early bettors but there is still a bit of value there for us.
Swindon have lost their last three at home after winning their first two but they won the shot count in each of the three.
Swindon at odds of $2.75+ at home in League 1 in the last 10 years: 30 matches, 12 wins +8.17 units at level stakes (BET365 closing odds).
Donny have won three and drawn two at home this season which has seen them climb to 2nd in the table. The relative form of those wins is questionable, however, as they’ve beaten the 19th, 24th and 21st placed teams.
The question here is whether Barnet are overpriced at 5/1 to sneak a win? History suggests they are. Barnet have been 5/1 or bigger on 13 occasions in the last 10 years in L2 and $1 on each of those matches would have seen a profit of $17.5. They’ve been 4/1 or bigger 36 times for a level stakes profit of $21.
Donny are no great shakes as short priced favourites at home either. They’ve spent very little time in L2 but as odds on jolly in L1 and L2 in the last decade they’ve played 92 games for a level stakes loss of 20.94 units.
Leyton Orient have played five games at home this term and have gone off at odds of 1.73, 1.83, 2.0, 1.91 and 2.3. The last match in that sequence was against top of the table Plymouth in a match in which they admittedly got thrashed on the numbers in a 2-0 defeat but it looks like a fair overreaction for them to be 3/1+ against Pompey who are 6th in the table.
Portsmouth have been priced at shorter than 2.5 in 25 away L2 matches and have won just five of them for -13.22.
Carlisle are have played 75 away games in L2. How many times have they started at odds on? None, that’s how many, so should they be odds on against a Morecambe side that have produced a level stakes profit of 19.2 units when priced at 2/1 or bigger at home? Probably not, even if Morecambe look pretty dire with Carlisle having won just one of their five away fixtures so far this season.