The mental challenge of serious punting is always a tough one and one that I have always battled with. I have become better at remaining stoical over the years, trying to keep my feet on the ground during the good times and not getting too down during the losing runs.
Another challenge is trusting the numbers and this is where i have failed so far this season. Last weekend was a brutal example of this with my model suggesting 12 bets yet I decided to only back the three best looking ones. I ended up with one winner from three bets and two units profit with Rotherham obliging at $5.0. Not bad, good even but five of the other nine teams won at big odds and I cost myself, and anyone following me a whopping 19 units at level stakes.
I’ve crunched the numbers for the season and – these are my figures so will be slightly different to official Oddy results – I’m losing 18.44 units at -13.7% ROI from 135 bets. The 19 units would have put me in profit! Had i backed every 10% overlay on my model’s prices i’d be +10.52 units up from 129 bets which is 8% ROI.
It’s not like this hasn’t happened to me before and following the model blind has always produced better numbers that when i use it as a guide and pick and choose my selections.
What happens is the model throws up a bet at something like $6 and in order to justify the bet on here I start looking at the teams form and see that the selection hasn’t won away all season while their opponent has won their last six at home or something similar. I then cannot pull the trigger and I ‘death ride’ the selection.
SO…from here on in for the rest of the season i’m putting up every 10% overlay and what will be will be. There will not be much of a write up but then i doubt anyone reads it anyway!
Burton to win at Cardiff – 14% overlay at $4.77
Rotherham to win at Newcastle – 14.2% overlay at $13
Barnsley to beat Leeds – 15% overlay at $3.50
Reading to win at Derby are 10.2% overlay at $4.50. They are currently $4.45 with Marathon. They may go to $4.50 somewhere in the 12.5 hours between now and kick off but have already been well backed.
Gillingham to win at Sheffield United – 16.1% overlay at $9.21
Southend to beat Bolton – 13.2 % overlay at $3.08
Crawley to beat Portsmouth – 1.4% overlay at $5.63
Morecambe to win at Leyton Orient – 10.3% overlay at $3.60
Crewe are a 10.1% overlay at $7.50 to win at Doncaster. Currently $7.21 best with Pinny