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English Football Picks - 09/04/17
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This isn’t fun just lately. It’s not that Lady Fortune torments us with her fickleness, as I often complain about, but with downright, sadistic consistency. Our long-term strike rate is about three winners in ten, but you wouldn’t guess it judging by our recent form. My last 63 bets have landed eight winners; or one in eight. I couldn’t do that badly if I tried, although we have waded through such sticky patches before. And, according to maths, they are to be expected. The longer you do something for, the more probable become strange sequences. Toss a coin enough times and sooner or later it’ll land ten times in a row showing the same face. We have wondered into such territory.

 

 

 

 

The consolation is the inevitable regression to the mean. Chance sequences will happen, but if you keep doing the same thing, the results will straighten out towards the (healthy) average again; provided that average was established over a long enough period. Ours was. So much in life is down to chance, and it’s no basis on which to quit something if you persist in what you know to be true and can keep emotions out of decision-making. So, inspired and fortified by this, spend some more of your hard-earned on these five in the Championship:

 

 

 

 

 

Blackburn vs BARNSLEY

Barnsley look over-priced for this, probably because their season threatens no danger to their survival and offers no hope to progress, while Rovers are in the mire. While they have improved, Barnsley should get chances – they do in every other game they play, and Rovers need to win.

$3.82 Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

 

 

Cardiff vs BRENTFORD

Cardiff are often formidable at home, but not always. Brentford have been excellent in attack of late, far from it in defence. Both teams will probably score, and Brentford to get more is the bet.

$3.10 Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

 

 

 

Leeds vs PRESTON

Preston have proven a popular bet, and have been backed in. Do the same at $3.4 or better. Leeds are rarely dominating teams at home these days, and Preston will fancy this after demolishing Bristol City last week.

$3.55 

 

 

 

 

Wigan vs ROTHERHAM

I remain convinced that Rotherham are not as bad as they think they are, but because they do, they are. Wigan are the last team that they beat, however, and lack several key players for this one. Now that they’re relegated, expect the Millers to go out and enjoy this one. At $7 or better, they’re a bet.

$7.52 Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

 

 

 

Norwich vs READING

Two sides whose inconsistency is hard to fathom meet in what should be a quality match. (They’ve spent enough on good players anyway.) Norwich have been largely dominant and territorial at home. Away from it, they can’t wait to get back there. Reading, though, are better away, and look to be recovering their play just at the right time. $4 for them is a great bet.

$4.01 Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

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