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English Premier League: Blind Betting at Big Odds
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By Mark Phillips

 

 

 

I’ve just backed Newcastle at close to 3/1 to beat Liverpool in the Premier League this weekend and those odds about a team at home that has just beaten Man City and Tottenham away got me thinking about blindly backing teams at big odds.

 

 

Since the start of the 05/06 season there have been 3510 Premier League matches.

 

There have been 296 HOME teams that have started at odds of $6.0 (5/1) or greater.

 

Forty six of those teams won for a level stakes profit of $60.36 which equates to 20.4% ROI.

 

 

Broken down by odds:

$11 – $19.5: 34 bets for -$9

$8 – $10.99: 88 bets for +41.33

$6.0 – $7.99: 174 bets for +28.03

 

 

 

 

 

There have been 399 AWAY teams that started at $11 (10/1) or bigger.

 

Twenty one of those teams won for a level stakes loss of -$64.08.

 

 

Broken down by odds:

$19 – $34: 106 bets for -$30

$16 – $18.99: 94 bets for -$41.11

$13 – $15.99: 93 bets for +$29.98

$11 – $12.99: 106 bets for -$22.95

 

 

 

Summary

The Return on Investment of 20.4% backing home teams blindly that start at odds of $6 or more suggests we should always take a second look at these matches.

The most profitable price range has been from $8 to $10.99. There have been 88 teams starting at odds in that range for a level stakes profit of $41.33. That’s a whopping 47% ROI. 

 

 

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