By Rob Cocozza
Last seasons results (03/04/14 – 28/5/14):
Profit: 46.08 units
The idea was to study the first five games of the season and keep the powder dry until there’s a bit of form to go on. 81 bets later, 2.37% better off and about the same amount wiser, let’s say we’re as ready as we’ll ever be. Apart from some obvious flying starters it’s hard to assess the relative merits of most teams in these divisions yet, such has been the mix of results and performances so far. Obviously, next year I’ll be keeping my powder dry until October when there’s a bit of form to go on…
In the meantime, we’ll be going predominantly with away wins again as there is evidence that these are generally over-priced and it’s served us well for a while now. The good news about doing this is that you only need to win about one in three to achieve decent profit: the bad, that it means enduring losing runs that can hurt morale, if not tame lions. And there will be more bets this year too, so hold onto your hats.
Bradford v Yeovil
Bradford have had a good start, Yeovil a poor one but, as their boss Gary Johnson so cannily points out, the league table doesn’t mean much until about 15 games in (thanks Gary). Bradford were off the pace to excellent Peterborough last time out at home, so I reckon the $3.5 is too big for the Glovers, who could find their rhythm after battering Barnsley in the second half a week ago.
Yeovil at $3.69 with
Bristol City v Scunthorpe United
A big call this, but the Iron haven’t played as badly as their results suggest, while City are yet to dominate at home. That could very well start here, although they might take time to re-discover some attacking potency since the recent loss of Sam Baldock to Brighton. In any case, there’s a better chance that Scunny could steal this one than the $5.5 with
Crawley Town v Rochdale
John Gregory didn’t quite manage to pull in the transfers he’d have liked after Crawley’s inexperience was evident against good teams in their first two at home. Now they welcome another in Rochdale, who don’t seem to mind where they play. $3.20 is worth a punt on them with
Oldham Athletic v Fleetwood
Fleetwood have caught the eye with their two wins away from home, and have been good value for both of them. Oldham are no mugs but have laboured in their couple of homes, so if you see $3 or bigger on the Cod Army, then it’s worth a bet.
Fleetwood $3.03 with
Walsall v Colchester
Walsall have only hit their stride in patches so far, while Colchester have played well in their two aways despite losing them. Those results have made them a pretty large $4.59 with , and they’ve got a better chance than that of turning in a win. This looks more even than the prices suggest.
Luton v Plymouth
Early favourites for promotion, Luton are still short in the match markets despite only faulty performances to date. Plymouth have looked decent enough and $3.5 with looks generous for them to outclass the promoted side.
Southend v Oxford
$5.07 with looks a whopping figure for Oxford to win this one as this looks a fairly even pairing. They’ve looked really decent at times, despite not always coming out on top, (and they’ve even got Will Hoskins, who really should be playing in the Championship). Southend haven’t exactly played anyone off the park yet.
Stevenage v York
Expect Stevenage to be a decent proposition in this league, as Graham Westley is a hard task-master who seems happier with his team now than he was a year ago. York are no mugs either, and the handful of results so far belie their quality. Bigger than $3 with to win this is a bit of value.
York $3.20 with
Sunday 7th Sept
Burton A v Portsmouth
Two well-fancied teams whose form leaves them equally inscrutable make for another closer call than the books suggest. $3.20 for Pompey to edge it with is pretty kind, given the quality of their squad.