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Euro 2016: Spain vs Czech Republic
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by @betdetective

I’ve been reading about how Spain are out of form – they lost to Georgia in their most recent friendly – and how they were not very good in qualification. The numbers don’t exactly back up this view as they won nine from 10 in qualifying, scoring 23 in the process and conceding just 3. If that’s poor form then look out when they hit their stride.

Recency bias in full effect with that most recent loss is my best guess but unfortunately the bookmakers have not suffered from the same wonky thinking and they’ve put the Spanish in at a shade worse than 1/2 to beat the Czechs. That makes the asian handicap -1.25 and i have no interest in that.

I do want to get with Spain though so it’s a matter of how to go about it. 

In Spain’s last 10 matches they’ve won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1. In the seven victories they’ve scored in the first half on six occasions. 

This is good enough for me to go with 1 unit Spain/Spain in the HT/FT market at $2.25 on Screenshot 2016-06-01 08.44.45

I also like the over 2.5 goals option with the Czechs last 10 matches having gone over eight times. Spain are 5/5 over/under. 

1 unit over 2.5 goals at $2.05 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

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