We took a day off yesterday after some bad luck/variance, whatever you want to call it. We were looking at 6.5 units profit until Russia equalised in the 92nd minute against England while Spain absolutely battered the Czechs but couldn’t get it in the net in the first half etc etc
Anyway, onwards and upwards and we now have some match stats to work with as the teams have all played one game each and we’ve had a chance to cast our eyes over most of them.
Russia play Slovakia in the early (11pm early enough for you?) match and neither team impressed in their opener. Russia are hard to break down, as England found out, and they had just 6 shots with 2 on target in the game and did not look like scoring…until they did.
Slovakia were outplayed for long periods by Wales but they still managed 12 shots (2 on target).
The two teams managed just four shots on target between them and the seven fixtures between Russia and Slovakia have produced just seven goals.
I lean towards Slovakia but the best odds of $3.40 only look fair value as the draw is such a big player with Russia probably happy with that result. It might prove more fruitful to look at at few correct scores.
Half units on each of the following on
0-0 at $9.0
1-0 at $7.6
0-1 at $10
Alternatively you can back under 1.5 goals at 2/1+ as it works out more or less the same. I favour the correct scores as a Slovakia win returns a little more.
Romania play Switzerland in the next game and Switzerland look like decent value to me. They had 15 shots with 7 on target when they beat Albania compared to Romania’s 9 and 2 in their defeat to France where they also only managed 35% possession. There is clearly a disparity in ability between the opponents there but Romania did not impress me against France and they could/should have lost by more than the one goal.
1 unit Switzerland at $2.55 with
The third match is France vs Albania and hopefully this is the game where Oliver Giroud, our $17.5 tip to be top scorer, gets a couple and moves to odds shorter than 2/1 where we might consider hedging a little. He’s currently $6.
We are also on France at $4.20 so another win for them will all but seal top spot in the group.
Our best bet against Albania is in the half time/full time market on France/France at $1.83 with