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Football League Picks 06/11/16 - Bet Detective
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It’s the first round proper of the FA Cup this weekend so we only have the Championship to go to for our bets. This may be a blessing but putting all negative thoughts to the back part of the mind has to be the way forward so lets do just that and look forward to a few long priced winners that are definitely due. 

 

 

 

Aston Villa vs Blackburn

A European Cup winner takes on a Premier League champion at Villa Park with neither side looking like returning to those glory days any time soon. 

Villa have won two and drawn five at home this term which suggests they’ll be tough to beat but they’ve been unconvincing, scoring just once in five of the seven matches and only winning in any sort of clear cut manner in the season opener against hapless Rotherham. 

Their attacking Championship numbers so far are only slightly better than average having managed an average of 14.1 shots with 5.1 on target. Defensively they are better, conceding just 2.4 shots on target compared to an overall division average of 4.65 over the last 10 years.

Blackburn have improved of late even if results are yet to show it and they’ve had chances to win a fair few more games than they have done so far this season. 

My odds are a fraction under $5 for a Blackburn win so the $6.30 with Screenshot 2016-05-17 10.04.53 or something close to it sounds good to me. 

 

 

 

Burton vs Barnsley

From two sleeping giants to a pair of the more unfashionable sides in the division. Burton are at the highest point of their history in their first season in the Championship while Barnsley spend most of their time in this league these days but are still very much the poor relation to many of their honouring clubs in Yorkshire. 

There’s not a lot between these two teams in the table, Barnsley have 20 points and Burton 17, and there probably won’t be much between then at the end of the season but as it stands I have Barnsley rated as a top 6 side away from home but Burton a bottom half home team.

Back Barnsley at $3.52 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

 

 

Newcastle vs Cardiff

Newcastle are going to be a conundrum team this season as they are likely to be a class above the majority of, if not all the teams in the division and to make matters harder for their opposition they have a world class manager to whom the Geordies should be ever grateful for sticking with them despite their shambolic last few years. The trouble for us is we are going to have some seriously big odds dangled in front of our eyes each week for teams that may well be half decent by normal Championship standards. Keys to our success in this respect will be timing and selection of market.

The timing might be good with key forward Dwight Gayle and out midfielder both doubtful for the match.

Cardiff had a poor start to the term but have improved under the wily leadership of Neil Warnock and have won two of their last three away from home. 

You can have $8.50 about the win for the Bluebirds but i’m tipping the draw no bet market (0 handicap) at $6.50 with Screenshot 2016-05-17 10.04.53

 

 

 

Bristol City vs Brighton

This match up sees two teams i’d love to see in the Premier League as it’s been way too long since either was in the top flight and both have come back from the 4th tier of the Football League to get where they are now, with genuine promotion chances. 

This bet is predicated on Brighton’s away form being, thus far, overrated. They beat Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 away recently despite losing the shot count by 18 attempts while they also managed few shots when beating Wigan in their last game on the road. 

Bristol City are lucky to have the services of Chelsea youngster Tammy Abraham on their books as a loanee this season and he already has 12 goals in 14 games. He has yet to score at Ashton Gate however and he’ll no doubt be keen to address that. I caught about 10 minutes of Abraham on TV playing for a young England side recently and that was enough to convince me of his immense potential. Check out this video to see what i mean and bear in mind that he is 6ft 3 and is going to fill out into a powerful Didier Drogba type of player. http://footballleagueworld.co.uk/watch-on-loan-bristol-city-striker-shows-off-his-silky-skills/?

Back Bristol City at $3.20 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

 

 

 

 

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