Martin Kaymer and Jordan Spieth share the lead at 12 under, three shots clear of Aussie John Senden and Sergio Garcia. A further shot back is another Aussie, Matt Jones, plus George McNeill and Gary Woodland.
The winner should come from the final group so we’ll concentrate on those two players.
What is certain is that the winner will have to scramble well. The rough is deep in parts and getting up and down for par from out of position will be key.
The German has one win from 73 PGA Tour starts and 10 wins from 169 starts on the European Tour. He ranks 192nd in scrambling on the PGA Tour (173rd on European Tour) and 7th this week. Kaymer clearly struggles with scrambling so it will be vital that he keeps up his Greens In Regulation stats if he is to win – he’s ranked 1 this week.
Kaymer has led after 54 holes across all tours on 13 occasions and went on to win eight times. These are the numbers of a good leader and you’d imagine that he’ll play with some sense of freedom tomorrow after a testing couple of years in which he’s fallen from number one in the world to number 61.
Spieth has won once from 44 PGA Tour starts and the 20 year old has an air of calm about him; he’s bogey free through 54 holes so why wouldn’t he ? His composure was severely tested as recently as last month when he found himself leading the Masters going into round four. He went on to finish 2nd to Bubba Watson.
Spieth has led twice after 3 rounds in his short career, finishing 2nd on both occasions. He did not fall apart in those final rounds by any means, shooting 72 (average round score by all players: 73.13) at the Masters and 69 (average score: 70.53) on the other occasion.
If Kaymer has the advantage of experience over Spieth then the American holds the aces when it comes to scrambling. He is ranked 1 this week and 19th this year on the PGA Tour.
Martin Kaymer hit 94.4% of greens in regulation in round 1, 72.2% in round 2 and 61.1% in round 3. These numbers have a worryingly regressive look about them and Kaymer will need to hit more than 60% of greens to hold off the challenge of Jordan Spieth tomorrow.
Spieth is 100% for scrambling so far this week and if he continues in that form he’ll be hard to beat but if he cards an early bogey, his resolve will be firmly tested.