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Golf: Saudi International
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by @betdetective

 

 

 

Skeeter has the Phoenix Open covered on the PGA Tour so I’ve taken a good look at the Saudi International on the European Tour this week. 

 

We are all guessing a little bit with this being the first event at the Royal Greens Golf and Country Club but it’s in the desert so wind will probably play a part at some point over the four days and when the wind doesn’t blow hard it should play quite easy as its short at only 6,900 yards and with barely a tree to be seen lining the fairways. 

 

We have the two winners from last week teeing it up here in Justin Rose and Bryson De Chambeau and who wants to oppose them at the moment? (yeah, ok, us). Add DJ and Koepka into the mix and that’s as strong a top end of the market as we’ve seen for a while.

 

At current Betfair win odds the four favourites take up 62% of the market. Would you back the four combined at $1.62? I’m sure plenty will but that’s not the strategy that has seen us win our followers plenty over the last 5+ years. 

 

 

Instead we are going to look for some value in three 100/1+ shots and some top 10 bets. 

 

 

First up we have Mr Theodore Ernest Els who has looked completely gone at the game on a number of occasions but its testament to his dedication that he keeps coming back. He’s the Presidents Cup captain and i’ve no doubt this is pushing him forwards this year.

 

His last three finishes read 15, 26 and 13 so he’s ticking along OK and the four time Major winner can play well in the desert. 

 

1 unit at $126 with TAB. 1 unit top 10 at $10 with TAB

 

 

 

Second up we have a player who graduated from the Challenge Tour last year in Spaniard Adri Arnaus. He had a successful amateur career at Texas A&M and won the Challenge Tour Grand Final in November last year.

 

He looks certain to make a mockery of his current world ranking of 128 over the coming months and we should be getting involved at huge odds while we can.

 

1 unit at $180 with Betfair. 1 unit top 10 at $12.5 with Betfair

 

 

 

Last up is a rare poke at a 999/1 shot. 

Aussie Jake Mcleod impressed at the Australian Open last November shooting rounds of 70, 67, 75 and 66 to finish in third place behind runaway winner Abraham Ancer and take out the Australasian PGA Order Of Merit to earn himself a spot on the European Tour. He then led the Aussie PGA Championship after round 1 a couple of weeks later. 

 

He hasn’t teed it up competitively since then but no doubt he’s been working hard in preparation for his first start on one of the two top level tours. 

 

It’s hard to see him beating the guys at the top of the market but if he plays like he did at the back end of the year in this neck of the woods when he hit fairways and had his wedges dialled in you just never know and at $1000 i’m in. He also has an early tee time so we’ll chuck a few dollars at the first round leader market too.

 

0.5 units at $1000  & 1 unit top 10 at $29 and 0.5 units 1st round leader at $190, all on Betfair.

Good luck us. 

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