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National League Picks 13/02/16
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By @betdetective

 

 

 

 

There’s no hiding from it. One winner in 14 National League bets constitutes a losing run and when the lone winner was at a fraction under 6/4 it doesn’t help too much.

 

I would say this is a good time for a little more analysis on these pages than sometimes can be the case. I will also go over the bets i’ve placed since the start of the year and compare them to how i would have fared had I followed the ratings blindly. When i do this i tend to wish i’d followed them blindly, which annoys me but also gives me confidence that my ratings are still working *pauses to update spreadsheet….OK, on the bare ratings i’d have been -13.63 units since Jan 1st and actual figures are -11.76 so it’s ‘just’ a losing run, or variance as people who don’t like the word losing tend to call it. 

 

 

The bets for the weekend are:

Chester to win at Eastleigh:

 

Eastleigh are rated 13.87 at home with a recent form rating at home of 11.67. The Spitfires have seen their form slump since they got knocked out off the FA Cup and also since they hit the play-off places. They beat Woking on Wednesday with practically the last kick of the game after being aa goal behind and down to 10 men. Woking them had a man dismissed themselves and this looks to have ultimately made the difference. 

 

They play Chester who are coming off a thumping 8-2 win over Aldershot (no bounce back effect today against Torquay please Aldershot). Chester’s away rating is 14.99 (RFR 20.5) so are in good form. They’ve actually won their last three away games.

Chester are my bet of the day as I make them close to 2/1.

 

1 unit Chester at $4.0 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10 (we missed the $4.50 while i was tarting around with my retrospective rating analysis) 

 

 

 

Next up are Gateshead to beat Forest Green. Gateshead started the season as the smash and grab merchants on the road, winning five of their first seven while not winning the shot count on each occasion. This is as rare as rocking horse shit. 

 

Recently their form has dipped slightly away from home while it has improved at home. Their rating at home is 13.91 with a RFR of 15.58. They’ve won their last three and four out of five at home. 

 

Forest Green have been machine like at home winning nine on the spin before going down to Grimsby in mid-week. Their RFR of 13.5 is below their season average of 18.26 and it’s just possible the draw at Barrow when Barrow should maybe have won and the loss to Grimsby might have let a few doubts creep in as the Gloucester club look to get in to the Football League for the first time in their history. 

1 unit Gateshead at $4.16 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

 

 

The last pick is Woking who are big outsiders to beat Cheltenham. This is my least confident pick so just mentioning that should improve their chances a little. Woking are in a bad run of form (tell me about it) but their could have won at Eastleigh in the week had Kieran Murtagh not seen red in the 2nd half. Their lousy run of form sees their RFR at 10.38 which compares badly to their season rating of 16.49.

The glimmer of hope – have I put you off yet? – is Cheltenham’s recent home ratings of 21.13 ( good), 16.25 (just above average) and 9.25 (poor).

1 unit Woking at $7.76 with  Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18 (they are as big as $8.20 with Bet52..whoever they are).

 

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