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National League Ratings and Bets 03/10/15
free bets bet 365

By @betdetective

We broke even in the last round of bets in the National League so still have very healthy profits as we move into October.

Six bets this weekend, five on the ratings and one other.

 

The one other is Forest Green to beat Grimsby.

 

Forest Green’s odds in their 6 away games so far: $2.0, $2.2, $2.0, $2.35, $2.2 & $2.1. They won 4, lost 2. Odds tomorrow vs Grimsby: $4.89

 

So why are they such a huge price?

 

They are top of the league, Grimsby are 7th.

 

They are 3rd in the away ‘table’, Grimsby are 11th in the home version.

 

This is  perfect example of what is known as ‘recency bias’ i.e. putting too much emphasis on the most recent piece of form.

 

In their last match Grimsby won 4-0 at Southport – but lost the shot count 11 to 7.

 

Forest Green lost at home to Gateshead 1-0 but won the shot count 14 to 2. Gateshead are proving to be the masters of the away ‘smash and grab’ mission. They’ve won four matches away from home with 5 shots on goal or fewer.

 

Forest Green have lost 3 and drawn 1 of their last four but, as always, the odds dictate the action and they just must be backed to return to winning ways at Grimsby on Saturday.

 

 

1 unit on each of these:

Forest Green at $4.89 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

Guiseley at $3.06 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18 (FRIDAY NIGHT GAME)

Altrincham at $3.48 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

Halifax at $3.85 with Screenshot 2015-08-27 09.47.09

Kidderminster at $2.42 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

Bromley at $4.75 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

 

 

 

 

HOME RATING AWAY RATING
guiseley 17.54 lincoln 15
altrincham 12.4 barrow 9.94
chester 12.77 wrexham 17.96
eastleigh 12.98 braintree 13.83
halifax 14.91 cheltenham 15.96
gateshead 13.19 dover 15
grimsby 21.31 forest green 11.71
kidderminster 13.35 welling 8.5
macclesfield 17 boreham wood 10
torquay 15 aldershot 13
tranmere 16.6 bromley 19.3
woking 19.4 southport 9.2

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